This week's PGA Tour action comes from Aronimink Golf Club, Pennsylvania, where Justin Rose is defending his AT&T National title.
He will have to improve on his recent performances, though, and bookmakers are fairly dismissive of his chances with 45/1 freely on offer. They much prefer the chances of Doral winner Nick Watney, who has been installed as 14/1 favourite by Stan James, with Ryan Moore next best at 18/1. It's 20/1 bar the pair which brings in Hunter Mahan, only 43rd on Sunday after also flopping at the US Open when well fancied.
Unfortunately for punters, there is precious little course form to go on this week as the Donald Ross-designed Aronimink track is staging the event for only the second time after hosting in 2010. However, it's safe to say the course is a beast, rating as the second-most difficult of the 14 par-70s played on Tour last season, and the winner will do well to beat Rose's winning score of 10-under. Measuring around 7,200 yards, the emphasis is more on finding the right spot on the fairways and small greens, rather than power off the tee.
My Three Against The Field:
Ryan Moore @ 20/1 Coral
Coral go out on a limb with their 20/1 quote and that looks fair value for a player who has shown a liking for old-fashioned courses like this one. The evidence? Well, he finished runner-up here 12 months ago for starters and finished tied-2nd only last week at River Highlands, another Ross design - might have won but for bogeying the last. Furthermore, his only win on Tour to date came at Sedgefield which - you guessed it - was also designed by that man Ross. All in all, he looks almost certain to contend again this week and is a must for any staking plan.
Gary Woodland @ 45/1 Stan James
I also considered including Watney after his seventh place here last year, but I was swayed by the bigger odds on Woodland, who has 'previous' on the Tour's toughest tracks: top-10's at PGA National and Muirfield Village, 24th at Augusta on his debut, 23rd at Congressional, to go with his victory at Copperhead earlier this season. Currently sitting nicely at 14th and 9th in the GIR and ball striking stats respectively, he should find Aronimink very much to his liking.
Ricky Barnes @ 66/1 bet365
I'm convinced Barnes will win before the season is out and it's more likely to come on a course where par is a good score. Tough courses seem to bring out the best in his game and you may remember he finished tied-2nd in the 2009 US Open at Bethpage Black, which is as tough as they get. Sure, last week's 43rd was a little disappointing but he started well enough with a 65 on Friday and still managed to top the week's GIR stats. It was the other way round here 12 months ago with two weekend rounds in the 60s carrying him up to 16th place, and a little more consistency with the putter should see him run close this week.
Recommended Bets:
Ryan Moore 2pts each-way @ 20/1 Coral
Gary Woodland 1pt each-way @ 45/1 Stan James
Ricky Barnes 1pt each-way @ 66/1 bet365
