AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am (11th - 14th February)
Format: Strokeplay Pro-Am (156-man field, plus amateurs)
Courses: Pebble Beach Golf Links (par-72, 6,816 yards), Monterey Peninsula Country Club (par-72, 6,833 yards), Spyglass Hill Golf Course (par-72, 6,858 yards) - all three courses played in rotation over the first three days with Sunday's final round played at the host course, Pebble Beach.
Weather: Isolated showers possible on Thursday with wet, murky conditions expected on Friday. Drier at the weekend.
Where to watch: Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting 8.00pm (UK time) Thursday
Bets on by: 3.00pm (UK time) Thursday
2009 Winner: Dustin Johnson (15 under, only three rounds played)
Dustin Johnson @ 22/1 bet365
This event is often influenced by the weather - last year's event was reduced to 54 holes after rain washed out the final round - so it's surprising the results here have been fairly easy to predict over the years. The roll call of winners is littered with multiple champions, while players who play well here often repeat their good form on subsequent visits - even 100/1 winner Matt Gogel (2002) had previous form here. You can see where I'm leading too. 2009 winner Johnson is back to defend his trophy this week and, what's more, he will head to Pebble Beach in buoyant mood after a tie for third at Riviera last week. He might even have won but for a third round 74 but of more significance for this week, he once again proved during Friday's round his ability to handle wet weather. With some wet stuff forecast over the first two days, he simply has to go close and, thanks to the presence of Mickelson, he's a fair price.
Retief Goosen @ 18/1 Stan James
I expected slightly better of Goosen in Dubai (tied-9th) but I reckon he's worth sticking with as, like Johnson, he handles bad weather better than most and, while he has only played the course twice as a professional, he has gone well both times. After finishing 12th in the 2000 US Open here, it's surprising he waited nine years to make his tournament debut and his third place finish (led after 36 holes) might have left him ruing some missed opportunities. Naturally, recent form is just as important and the South African has been putting together a solid run of form with seven top-10's in his last 10 starts. All he needs I reckon is a decent tee time - a morning start, especially on the host course, can be either very good or very bad depending on the weather - to ensure we get a good run for our money. Just be ready to trade out if he's in contention going into the final round!
Nick Watney @ 40/1 Ladbrokes
I've had my eye on Watney since the start of the year. I thought he'd play better than 16th (of 22) at the season-opening SBS Championship but according to his coach Butch Harmon he was still getting used to some new clubs, and he looked much more comfortable when finishing 9th at Torrey Pines. Last week's missed cut at Riviera was a step back but the extra two days to prepare for this could be a blessing and he can boast that all-important course form having finished 7th here in 2006. It also means we can back him at 40/1 instead of something around the 25/1 mark!
Bubbling Under: Mike Weir (25/1 general)
The Canadian so nearly made into the staking plan due to his amazing record here - form figures of 7-8-52-3-4-2-3-MC-14-2 since 2000 - but last week's MC at Riviera, where I expected to play well, put me off. Still, if he's in contention after a couple of rounds, I won't be able to resist a saver.
Punters Beware: Phil Mickelson
Lefty has been a lay for me for the last two weeks and I'm pushing my luck a third time, I know. However, his putting left a lot to be desired last week and I still can't have him at single-figure odds.
Recommended Bets:
Dustin Johnson 1.5pts each-way @ 22/1 bet365
Retief Goosen 1.5pts each-way @ 18/1 Stan James
Nick Watney 1pt each-way @ 40/1 Ladbrokes