The first World Golf Championship event of the year gets under way on Wednesday with the Accenture Match Play at the Ritz-Carlton Golf Course in Marana, Arizona.
Only two of the world's top 64 players - Phil Mickelson (holiday) and Paul Casey (sick note) - are missing for what is a straight knockout tournament, with the final four golfers (one from each quarter) standing playing out the two semi-finals on Sunday, before competing in either the 18-hole final or consolation match. The players are seeded 1 to 64 with Ernie Els and George Coetzee filling the vacant spots, and for the first time in Accenture history the top four seeds are European: Luke Donald, Rory McIlroy, Lee Westwood and Martin Kaymer, in that order.
Donald was never headed here 12 months ago, with his six matches not once going up the 18th, and he proved himself yet again in this format when reaching the final of the European equivalent in Spain last summer. Yet bookmakers don't rate his chances as highly as those of Rory McIlroy, who is the universal favourite at 12/1, with the Englishman a best-priced 18/1 with BetVictor. Sandwiched in between at 14/1 (bet365) is Tiger Woods who won this event three times in his heyday and always as top seed in his quarter, but now finds himself languishing at No.19 and up against Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano in his opening match.
Predicting what will happen when it all gets under way at around 5pm UK time is akin to pulling one out of a sweepstake as just about anything can happen over 18 holes of match play - and normally does! However, I can never resist the challenge of taking on the bookmakers and the fact they are paying out on four places (one quarter the odds), encourages me to back one player in each of the four quarters, giving myself a theoretical chance of having all four semi-finalists, although I'd settle for one!
Bobby Jones Bracket: Kyle Stanley @ 55/1 Boylesports
Luke Donald is naturally favourite to progress from this quarter but faces a tricky first round tie against Ernie Els, himself no mug at match play, and besides the Englishman has hardly been pulling up trees on his first two starts of 2012 (48th & 56th). In siding with the American instead, I'm not only getting far superior odds but the knowledge of being on one of the most in-form and consistent players on the planet right now. Recent form figures of 2-1-24 don't do him justice as he lost in a playoff at Torrey Pines after finding water on the 72nd hole, and was then guts personified when landing the following week's Phoenix Open on a desert course like this. Even last week's 24th at Riviera was commendable as he was making his course debut and while the same applies this week, his game is much more suited to Ritz-Carlton.
Ben Hogan Bracket: Graeme McDowell @ 50/1 bet365
With Martin Kaymer not quite firing on all cylinders, this bracket is there for the taking and the pin has landed on the Northern Irishman, who weighed in for this by finishing third in Abu Dhabi, which is another desert style course. He was playing just his seventh competitive round of the year there so will come into this nice and fresh, and he does have some previous here having made it to the third round last year before a surprise loss to YE Yang. The Ryder Cupper knows what it takes to win at match play and will be scared of no-one.
Gary Player Bracket: Geoff Ogilvy @ 55/1 Boylesports
Continuing with the theme of taking on the obvious favourite, in this case McIlroy, who has no gimme against George Coetzee in round one and may not putt well enough to win this, I have no hesitation in putting up the Aussie at what are generous odds. Granted, he's fallen down the rankings of late and hasn't found the winner's enclosure since 2010 but his second in the JBWere Masters in December suggests he's far from a spent force, and his match play record is to die for, having won here twice (2006 & 2009) and finishing runner-up in 2007.
Sam Snead Bracket: Justin Rose @ 66/1 Ladbrokes
Lee Westwood's terrible record in this event is hard to fathom as he is a wizard at match play and it would be no surprise to see him emerge from this bracket. However, at the odds I'd rather take a punt on another Englishman in Rose, who made the quarters of this event in 2007, albeit on a different course, and played solidly at Riviera last week (tied-13th). His first round opponent Paul Lawrie will provide a stern test but the winner is drawn to avoid Westwood and Woods until the quarters, and Rose wouldn't be a big price to beat either.
Recommended Bets:-
Kyle Stanley 1pt each-way @ 55/1 Boylesports
Graeme McDowell 1pt each-way @ 50/1 bet365
Geoff Ogilvy 1pt each-way @ 55/1 Boylesports
Justin Rose 1pt each-way @ 66/1 Ladbrokes
