Alfred Dunhill Championship: Charl to Deliver on Home Soil

At 66/1, I just think he deserves a little more respect from bookmakers.

Little more than two weeks after the 2009 Race to Dubai came to a thrilling climax, the 2010 edition starts with the Alfred Dunhill Championship at Leopard Creek, the venue for the past five years.

The Course: Leopard Creek GC, Mpumalanga, South Africa (par-72, 7,249 yards)
Situated on the border of the Kruger National Park, this is a tough parkland course with four par-5's, three of which (13th, 15th and 18th) come in the last six holes. That tends to suit the long hitters down the stretch, but solid ball striking is just as important around here, especially as there is all sorts of trouble (including wildlife) waiting for those who stray from the generous fairways. The Bentgrass greens are once again expected to be firm, slick and very grainy.

Ross’ Top Tip: Charl Schwartzel @ 13/1 Skybet
I’m no fan of Els this week (see below) but at least his presence in the field adds a couple of points to the price of his compatriot Schwartzel, who simply has to be backed. The South African rarely disappoints on home soil and is a regular contender in this event - a victory (2004), two second places and a brace of top-20 efforts are testament to that. His current form, which includes fifth place in Singapore a month ago, isn’t bad either, so I’m confident he can land the place part of the bet at least.

Next Best: Darren Fichardt @ 66/1 William Hill
Outside the front two in the market, bookmakers aren’t giving that much away with few discrepancies amongst the 20/1 to 50/1 shots. Of these, I like Edoardo Molinari (25/1 Coral) and Thomas Aiken (28/1 Stan James) best, but my second pick, another South African, offers more in the way of value.

Like Schwartzel, Fichardt brings solid course form to the table, having finished fourth in this event in 2006, while he also won the Sunshine Tour event played here in 2001. You have to go back to 2003 for his last win on the European Tour (Qatar Masters), but three wins on the Sunshine Tour in 2009, most recently in early November, suggest he’s back to something like his best and he’ll be feeling pretty confident coming into this week. At 66/1, I just think he deserves a little more respect from bookmakers.

Outsider: Keith Horne @ 100/1 Ladbrokes
Another local with decent course form, having finished sixth in this event last year and third in the Sunshine Tour Championship held here in 2004. These days, the Springbok splits his time between that Tour and the Asian Tour, on which he’s managed a couple of top-10 finishes this autumn, and I expect him to play even better now he’s back on home fairways. It’s hard to seen him winning but 25/1 a place has a nice ring to it.

Tournament Lay: Ernie Els in Betfair’s win market
The ‘Big Easy’ is an easy lay this week. For one, when was the last time he won? March 2008 to be exact and he’s folded under pressure the few times he’s been in contention since. Sure, this week’s field offers him a chance to get back to winning ways, but I’d want bigger odds than the current 6/1.

Ross’ 72-Hole Match Bet: Darren Fichardt to beat Damien McGrane @ 10/11 Ladbrokes

Recommended Bets:
Charl Schwartzel 2pts each-way @ 13/1 Skybet
Darren Fichardt 1pt each-way @ 66/1 William Hill
Keith Horne 1pt each-way @ 100/1 Ladbrokes

 

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Tags: Alfred Dunhill Championship,  Charl Schwartzel,  Damien Mcgrane,  Darren Fichardt,  Ernie Els,  European Tour,  Golf Betting,  Keith Horne,  Leopard Creek,  Race To Dubai 2010