Tiger Woods returns this week for Arnold Palmer’s tournament where he’ll be chasing his fourth straight win of 2008 and sixth straight on the US Tour, but which Tiger will turn up this week?
The Course: Bay Hill Club & Lodge, Orlando FLA (par-70, 7,239 yards)
This well-established course has tightish fairways, above average size, sloping, Bermuda greens and a famous finish. There are 103 bunkers and nine holes where water comes into play. There are now only two par-5’s (12th and 6th) after the course was slightly shortened and reduced to a par-70 for last year’s event. Overall, it’s a tough test of golf, and in 29 years only four players have broken par on all four days.
Ross’ Top Tip - Vijay Singh @ 25/1 Stan James & 16/1 (Without Woods) Boylesports
There’s no doubt Tiger backers will be out in force this week, and the general 5/4 on offer could well be beaten down by the time he hits his opening drive. But there are reasons for taking him on, namely his recent finishes here - 46th in 2004, 23rd in 2005 and 20th in 2006. Compare that to Vijay’s last three starts here of 1st, 7th and tied-2nd, and the 25/1 becomes interesting. He’s been knocking on the door this season - reached the quarter finals of the World Matchplay and second at Pebble Beach – and a win is surely just around the corner. Back him each way but also ‘Without Tiger’ as an insurance.
Next Best - Stuart Appleby @ 40/1 Ladbrokes & 25/1 (Without Woods) Paddy Power
‘Apples’ has twice been a runner-up at Bay Hill (let a four-shot lead slip in 2004), and has started this season with five consecutive top-ten finishes. That makes him very much the form player this week and he looks one of the few capable of giving Tiger a game. Again, take Tiger out of the equation by betting without him.
Outsider - Corey Pavin @ 200/1 Boylesports & ‘Top Ten’ Finish @ 10/1 Skybet
I was surprised to see Pavin as big as 200/1 this week. The former US Open champ was a winner on Tour as recently as July 2006 and has been doing his best recently to make the US Ryder Cup team as a player - 3rd at Pebble Beach, 12th and 14th (last week) in his last two starts. He’s worth a small each way bet in the outright market, but have a bigger one on him to finish in the top ten.
Tournament Lay (Betfair) – Jim Furyk
Fifth or sixth favourite with bookmakers this week, but has looked decidedly rocky in his last two outings and is worth a place lay.
Ross’ 72-Hole Match Bet – Stuart Appleby to beat Jim Furyk @ 10/11 Skybet
In-running notes:
There is plenty of potential for late drama. The toughest hole is the famous 18th, where most of the green is protected in front by a lake, while those who go long or left face a treacherous chip to a green which slopes towards the water. The par-3 17th is the second hardest hole. This is not a course to play catch up on so the winner is most likely to be in the first three going into Sunday.
Recommended Bets:
Vijay Singh 1pt each way @ 25/1 Stan James / 1pt each way @ 16/1 (W/O Woods) Boylesports
Stuart Appleby 1pt each way @ 40/1 Ladbrokes / 1pt each way @ 25/1 (W/O Woods) Paddy Power
Corey Pavin ½ pt each way @ 200/1 Boylesports / 1pt Top Ten Finish @ 10/1 Skybet