World number one Luke Donald may be the biggest name competing in this week’s JB Were Australian Masters, but that does not mean he will be leaving with the winner’s cheque.
In so many respects, it is easy to see this final event of the 2011 golfing season as perfectly teed up for the man who dominated it. After completing an unprecedented PGA and European money list double, Englishman Donald has a golden opportunity to finish in style against a field that, while including capable opposition, contains nothing like the strength in depth he's been used to.
Donald's case is also strengthened by the fact that, like most Australian championship courses, Victoria Golf Club is the type of layout where the best players tend to dominate. Even the home contingent is less convincing than usual. Yet, at the extremely prohibitive quote of 5.4 (
Betfair), I just can't consider backing him. Not when Luke has messed up so many opportunities in the past, and is better known for consistency than prolific winning. Moreover, he could be forgiven for taking his foot off the pedal after working hard over the weekend to secure the Race to Dubai, and treating this event as an afterthought. It goes without saying that Donald is bound to feature on the leaderboard, but better value may lie elsewhere, particularly in place markets.
Luke isn't the only overseas star, as the Aussie Tour organisers have excelled themselves by repositioning the tournament date, and attracting the likes of Ian Poulter and Matteo Manassero.
The latter remains one of the game's great prospects, but 2011 has been a difficult season and he looks best avoided for now. Poulter on the other hand has solid credentials. Recent efforts in higher pedigree Asian events showed he's in top form, and unlike compatriot Donald, does have some previous Aussie form. Earlier this century, when a much lesser player, Poulter finished third at The Lakes in 2001 and sixth at The Vines in 2006. Besides a slight concern that he'd be better suited to an easier, target golf track, Poulter's 15.5 odds under-estimate his chance.
Indeed, they are strengthened by the weak records of many leading Australians here. Defending champ Stuart Appleby is struggling right now, and 'Mr Consistent' Nick O'Hern has swerved the event. Greg Chalmers is chasing a clean-sweep of the Aussie triple crown, but is surely under-priced at 16.0, given a vastly inferior global profile and the fact he started the Open at 90.0. John Senden, so consistent elsewhere, has never made the top-ten in five Victoria outings. Nor has Richard Green.
That list, of course, excludes the two principal home candidates, Robert Allenby and Geoff Ogilvy. The former has six top-tens from six visits here, and lost a play-off for the PGA last time. However, Robert has some troubling off-course distractions right now, and that performance at Coolum was unexpected after a diabolical performance at the Presidents Cup. Only a fool would write him off, but backing Allenby is not without risk.
Ogilvy on the other hand is too obvious to ignore, on his home course, despite a surprise failure at the PGA. He'd previously looked in good touch when joint top Internationals scorer at the Presidents Cup, and made the top-ten on four of six attempts at Victoria. That stat reads a whole lot better when remembering that the first four attempts came last century, long before he'd made any mark as a professional.
In addition to these win only bets, the best value again lies in the top-ten market. Playing the top-ten yielded substantial profits at the Open, and a smaller one at the PGA. This time I'm going for four Aussies, including Terry Pilkadaris.
Firstly, Marcus Fraser is arguably the most in-form home player, after top-11s in four of his last six events, including a high-class affair in Hong Kong and losing the PGA play-off. Given the relative lack of strength in depth on this tour, 3.5 about another top-ten is huge.
Jarrod Lyle is pretty consistent at home, making the top-ten on four of his last seven home starts, including fifth on this course last year. He's also in respectable form, finishing 15th in the Open last time. Likewise Gavin Coles has the ideal mixture of course and recent form. Largely based in the States nowadays, where he won his penultimate start on the Nationwide Tour, Coles challenged strongly for a number of triple-crown events earlier in his career. That includes the last two championship events on this course, for which he made the top-seven in both. Gavin has an improved international profile nowadays, and looks way overpriced in all the main markets this week.
Recommended bets:
4u Geoff Ogilvy @ 11.0
3u Ian Poulter @ 15.5
1u Gavin Coles @ 80.0
Top-ten finish
8u Marcus Fraser @ 3.5
5u Jarrod Lyle @ 4.7
5u Gavin Coles @ 6.0
2u Terry Pilkadaris @ 9.0
