The BMW Championship, the European Tour's flagship event, takes place this week at its usual venue, the West Course at Wentworth, and has attracted one of the best fields you are likely to see outside a major.
However, punters would be wise to not put too much faith in previous form at the Surrey track as dramatic changes have been made over the winter, resulting in a longer layout, narrower fairways and new colonial bentgrass greens, replacing the much criticised poa bent ones of old. The water feature on the par-5 18th is now in front of the green making it a real risk-reward hole, while the total par has been reduced to 71.
The result should be higher scores and the winner is unlikely to match the 17 under par total achieved by last year's winner Paul Casey. The weather is expected to stay dry with temperatures rising throughout the week.
Ross' Three Off The Tee:-
Ernie Els @ 14/1 bet365 - 1/4 odds, SIX places
The Stoke outfit are offering each-way terms of a quarter the first six places (along with Boylesports and Paddy Power) and their quote of 14/1 on Els is unlikely to last long. It's common knowledge he has a house on the course and he will be even more familiar with the new-look course this week having overseen the changes. While he's never won this event, his record is far from shabby with five top-seven finishes in his last 11 starts and he arrives here on the back of a good third in Texas, after which he declared: "I'm back to hitting the ball with a lot of authority, like I did in the Florida Swing earlier this year (which yielded two wins in March) and I'm making my share of putts, too." Having won the old matchplay title played here on many occasions, he will be keen to add this tournament to his CV and he's a strong fancy to do just that, although the extra place is a nice concession to have on our side.
Francesco Molinari @ 33/1 Ladbrokes
I was going to make Els my only bet this week but I just can't resist a dabble on the Italian, who is fast becoming one of the class acts on Tour. Since winning the World Cup with his brother Edoardo in November last year, he's taken his game to another level and ninth place in the Players Championship last time out is a fair indication of where he is right now. That experience of playing on the other side of the pond will stand him in good stead this week as the new greens (laid to USPGA standards) will be be running much quicker than what many of the European Tour players are used to, while he has the accurate game to be competitive anywhere.
Alejandro Canizares @ 70/1 Blue Square
Do we really need to back anyone else? Well, the fact this event has thrown up plenty of big-priced winners oner the past decade, encourages me to throw in an outsider and the form of the Spaniard marks him out as a tasty each-way bet. The 27-year-old followed up his third place in the Spanish Open with tenth in Italy and second last week in Majorca, where he lost a play-off to Peter Hanson. He faces stiffer opposition this week, of course, but confidence is everything in golf and he will have that in spades right now and a win here wouldn't be anywhere near as big a shock as that of 200/1 rags Andrew Oldcorn (2001) and Ignacio Garrido (2003).
Bubbling Under: Ignacio Garrido (80/1 Boylesports - 1/4 odds, SIX places)
Talking of which, the Spaniard could be a factor this week in his current form of top-25 finishes in each of his last six starts on Tour.
Punters Beware: Padraig Harrington
Likes the changes, apparently, but has a modest record here and is playing with a slight knee injury, which is due to be operated on prior to the US Open in June.
Recommended Bets:
Ernie Els 4pts each-way @ 14/1 bet365 (1/4 odds, 1.2.3.4.5.6)
Francesco Molinari 1pt each-way @ 33/1 Ladbrokes
Alejandro Canizares 1pt each-way @ 70/1 Blue Square