We’re at the half-way stage of the FedEx Cup playoffs and the field has been whittled down to 70 for this week’s BMW Championship at the revamped Cog Hill.
The Course: Cog Hill GC, (Dubsdread Course), Lemont, IL (par 71, 7,616 yards)
The old Cog Hill course, which was used for this event between 1997 and 2007, has been completely redesigned with new greens, repositioned bunkers and water features brought into play on several holes – the 497-yard par-4 closing hole now has a green perilously close to a lake. Despite its length, though, it is still going to reward accurate iron play over brute strength. There are just three par-5’s, the 9th, 11th and 15th.
Ross’ Top Tip: Geoff Ogilvy @ 33/1 Stan James
Fact: Steve Stricker is playing the best golf on the planet right now – better than Tiger even - but that’s reflected in his miserly price of 14/1. Therefore, on a point of value alone, I have to look elsewhere for the winner and, apart from the bleedin’ obvious (see below for my thoughts on Woods), it’s Ogilvy who takes the eye at a tasty 33/1. Granted, he’s been largely out-of-sorts of late (hence the price), but last week’s effort of seventh (just three shots off the winner) was much improved and his accurate iron play (hit 72% GIR last week) should see him in contention for the second week running.
Next Best: Ernie Els @ 33/1 Coral
After making Els my headline tip last week, I was gutted to see him play badly and miss the cut. However, I think he’s worth another chance this week as his form going into the Deutsche Bank was pretty solid – top-10 finish at the USPGA and tied-second at the Barclays - and I’m hoping the extra two days off to work on his game with Butch Harmon will bring about an improved performance. Of course, the upside to his MC is a bigger price on offer this week and it’s big enough to tempt me to play.
Outsider: Jason Dufner @ 125/1 Paddy Power
Whilst many of the form players have been tightened up considerably in the betting, Dufner looks to have slipped under the bookmaker’s radar somewhat after his superb performance at the Deutsche Bank when just failing to catch Stricker by a shot. Granted, that performance came on the back of three missed cuts, but it wasn’t exactly a flash in the pan either as he’s had four other top-10 finishes this season, including a tied-third at the recent Canadian Open (the other side of his three MC’s). I thought he sounded quite composed during his post final-round interview and struck me as a future winner-in-waiting; this week hopefully.
Tournament Lay: Tiger Woods (Betfair win market)
Many people are expecting Tiger to win this week on account of his superior course record of four wins and four top-10’s (including second twice) from his last 10 starts here. However, the course is now almost unrecognisable from the one he destroyed with a 22-under par winning total in 2007 and, considering the cracks in his game he has shown in recent weeks, I’d still rather be a layer than a player at current odds.
Ross’ 72-Hole Match Bet: Geoff Ogilvy to beat Camilo Villegas at 1.91 Betfair
Recommended Bets:
Geoff Ogilvy 1pt each-way @ 33/1 Stan James
Ernie Els 1pt each-way @ 33/1 Coral
Jason Dufner 1pt each-way @ 125/1 Paddy Power