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Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial Tips

The PGA Tour returns to Texas this week for the Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial Country Club, where Zach Johnson is defending.

After an unimpressive start to 2011, Johnson's recent performances at Quail Hollow (6th) and Sawgrass (12th) suggest he's not far off peak form and he's rightly one of the market leaders at around 20/1. However, of those at 25/1 or less, I much prefer the chances of in-form Aussie Jason Day (18/1 Paddy Power), who has caught the eye several times already this season, including when tied-second at the Masters and tied-sixth last week, and won't have far to travel each day as he lives just just 15 minutes from the course. With one victory in the Lone Star State already on his CV - last year's Byron Nelson Championship - and a solo fourth here last year, he's a must for any staking plan.

You have to go back to 2008 to find Sergio Garcia's last win on the PGA Tour but Colonial provided him with the first of his seven wins in 2001 and there was much to like about his performance at Sawgrass last week (tied-12th), where he ranked No.1 for Putting. Sunday's coverage on Sky was punctuated by a succession of long putts by the Spaniard and, while it's a slight concern that he gave himself such long putts in the first place, this course is tailor-made for his precise driving and accurate (generally) iron play. The bookmakers don't miss much of course and have adjusted his price accordingly, but I still think the 35/1 on offer at bet365 underestimates his chances slightly.

Rory Sabbatini isn't exactly "Mr Popular" on Tour - just ask Sean O'Hair - but he makes up for a lack of charm on the course by playing some exquisite golf and he's dangerous to ignore in his current form. He's a winner at Honda this year and was third at Quail Hollow, while his 26th place last week does not do justice to his golf over the first three days (67-71-71). Colonial is an old-fashioned, tree-line course which can't be overpowered, so the South African's power counts for little, yet he clearly likes it here as he won in 2007 and was top-six in 2003 and 2005. His closing 73 on Sunday was just enough to divert the attention of bookmakers and the 33/1 on offer this week with Victor Chandler looks a tad generous IMO.

For my final pick, I will take a chance on Bobby Gates outrunning his odds as he has done three times on Tour already this season. First, there was a tied-sixth in the admittedly low-key Mayakoba Classic, followed by tied-15th in the Texas Open, and most recently his tied-sixth at Quail Hollow, where he tweeted: "I played great and my short game is awesome". OK, neither of those finishes would have rewarded each-way backers but, having played his college golf at Texas A&M, he will see this is a bit of a homecoming and will be used to playing in the wind, which is forecast throughout. It's not impossible he can make the frame so the 150/1 with Coral (over 37/1 a place) has to be taken.

Recommended Bets:-

Jason Day 2pts each-way @ 18/1 Paddy Power
Sergio Garcia 1pt each-way @ 35/1 bet365
Rory Sabbatini 1pt each-way @ 33/1 Victor Chandler
Bobby Gates 0.5pt each-way @ 150/1 Coral


 


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