I think he'll be in the winner's circle soon and it could come this week on a track he finished tied-third on last year.
The PGA Tour descends on Boston for the second of the FedEx Cup playoff events, the Deutsche Bank Championship, which gets under way on Friday to allow a Labour Day finish.
The Course: TPC of Boston, Norton, MA (par-71, 7,207 yards)
The Arnold Palmer-designed track is hosting this event for the seventh time so there's plenty of course form to go on. The fairways are quite generous and long hitters who can fade the ball are generally favoured. There are just three par-5’s: the 2nd, which has water in front of the green; the 600 yard 7th; and the risk-reward closing hole, which offers eagles and disasters in equal measure. Vijay Singh won with a 22-under par total last year so expect scoring to again be low.
Ross' Top Tip: Ernie Els @ 22/1 bet365
Last week's tied-second at the Barclays made it three top-10 finishes in his last four outings for Els and you can just see the old confidence coming back into his game. I think he'll be in the winner's circle soon and it could come this week on a track he finished tied-third on last year. There's a case for backing him 'without Tiger' at 14/1 (Paddy Power) but with the world No.1's aura of invincibility taking another pounding last week, I'm happy to take the bigger odds at bet365.
Next Best: Padraig Harrington @ 18/1 Sportingbet
Gave bettingpro followers an each-way payout last week and it could easily have been so much better had he not caught a bad second-round draw, shooting 75 in the worst of the weather. The fact he still finished just one shot off the lead shows his game to be at its peak right now and he's well worth persevering with for another week. Again, the temptation is to back him 'without Tiger' at 11/1 (Coral), but Sportingbet's standout 18/1 is too big to resist.
Outsider: Fredrik Jacobson @ 100/1 Ladbrokes
Hard to catch right in the past due to his inconsistency, the Swede has featured prominently on the leaderboard for two weeks running now, finishing 6th (last week) and 17th. A new driver and caddy might have something to do with that and, at the odds, it's worth chancing he can make it a hat-trick of good weeks. Further encouragement for that can be gleaned from his 9th here in 07, while last year he started well (67-68) before fading at the weekend when not in as good form.
Tournament Lays: Tiger Woods (Betfair's win market) & Phil Mickelson (match and group bets)
The fact Tiger took 114 putts last week and still only lost by a shot tells its own story. He could easily make amends here but last week's failure with the flat stick was no blip - poor putting has blighted his summer - and his pre-tournament odds are just too short in my opinion. Mickelson won here in 2007 but on recent form (58-73-52 in his last three starts), he's more likely to repeat last year's tied-73rd
Ross' 72-Hole Match Bet: Ernie Els to beat Phil Mickelson @ 4/5 Blue Square
Recommended Bets:
Ernie Els 2pts each-way @ 22/1 bet365
Padraig Harrington 1pt each-way @ 18/1 Sportingbet
Fredrik Jacobson 1pt each-way @ 100/1 Ladbrokes