The European Tour stays in the Middle East this week for the Dubai Desert Classic at the Emirates Golf Club, where Alvaro Quiros is defending.
The Spaniard has hardly made a flying start to the season - 109th and 53rd - which explains why he can be backed at 25/1 (bet365) for a repeat. He's got some tough rivals to beat too with the world's second, third and fourth ranked players, Rory McIlroy, Lee Westwood and Martin Kaymer also teeing up in Dubai. The former's superb record here - 1st (2009), sixth and 10th last year - make him a worthy favourite, although whether he's value at a measly 4/1 is open to question. Kaymer had a mare in Abu Dhabi (MC) two weeks ago but bounced back nicely in Qatar, finishing ninth, and will be a popular order at 9/1 (Ladbrokes). Westwood, who is not firing on all cylinders right now, gets a 11/1 quote from Totesport.
Emirates GC has been used for this event since 1989, meaning we have plenty of course form to go on, and past results suggest the cream will rise to the top with the list of past champions reading like a who's who of golf - Ballesteros, Els, Montgomerie, Olazabal and Tiger Woods have all had their name etched on the trophy. Big hitters will murder the three par-5s on the back nine but with water in play on 10 holes, many of which are dog-legs, golfers are required to shape shots and the shorter, more accurate hitters will have their day. The Bermuda greens are relatively flat and straightforward, which will give some relief to the more suspect putters. The weather will again be breezy but nothing like last week's gales.
My Three Off The Tee:-
Thomas Bjorn @ 25/1 Ladbrokes
McIlroy looks primed for a big performance on the back of his runner-up finish in Abu Dhabi but I'm not prepared to take the 4/1 on offer, which is the sort of price reserved for a prolific winner or when the opposition is weak - neither apply to the Northern Irishman. Bjorn, on the other hand, could be a shade of value after last week's disappointing 25th, which doesn't tell the whole story as he was out with the washing after an opening 79, before shooting the lights out over the weekend with a 65-68 finish. Previously, he'd finished third in Abu Dhabi so he can be forgiven one bad round, and this former Dubai resident knows every blade of grass round here. Those of you with good memories will remember the Dane's epic win here in 2001, when he was paired with Tiger all four rounds, showing the greater resolve in the end, and he's become a prolific winner since with three titles in 2011.
Anders Hansen @ 28/1 Coral (22/1 Bodog)
It was tempting to put up last week's winner and headline pick (hope you were on at 50/1!) Paul Lawrie again at 35/1 (bet365), but he has a poor record on the course and I'd rather back another Dane to bring home the bacon in Hansen. Granted, he's not what you'd call a prolific winner but is a player for the big occasion, finishing third in last season's USPGA and WGC Championship event at Doral, and can boast a string of high finishes in this part of the world, including when finishing joint runner-up to Quiros 12 months ago. His recent form is encouraging too with top-15 finishes in the previous two legs of the Desert Swing.
Thorbjorn Olesen @ 100/1 Coral (80/1 Bodog)
No apologies for making another Dane the final pick as he screams value at three-figure odds - I'd get in quick though! He was part of the staking plan last week and while his final placing of 59th didn't make us any money, he's worth another shot as he got the worst of the weather, yet still managed three rounds of par or better. That was on the back of eighth place in Abu Dhabi so we know he's on his game right now and the 22-year-old is a player to follow this season based on last season's three runner-up finishes, including in good company at the Alfred Dunhill Championship. Could this be the week he breaks through? It's possible but I'll settle for a place at 25/1.
Recommended Bets:-
Thomas Bjorn 2pts each-way @ 25/1 Ladbrokes
Anders Hansen 1pt each-way @ 28/1 Coral
Thorbjorn Olesen 0.5pt each-way @ 100/1 Coral (80/1 Bodog)
