Dubai Desert Classic: Recent Form Points to Karlsson

Dubai Desert Classic (February 4th-7th)

Format: Strokeplay (130-man field)
Course: Emirates GC (par-72, 7,301 yards), Dubai , United Arab Emirates
Weather: Most cloudy and windy with thunderstorms likely on Thursday and Friday. The weekend will be more settled although Saturday is expected to be very windy.
Where to watch: Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting 6.00am ( UK time) Thursday
Bets on by: 4am ( UK time) Thursday
2009 Winner: Rory McIlroy (19 under)

Ross' Three Off The Tee:-

Robert Karlsson @ 16/1 Ladbrokes
Last week's champion in Doha is worth backing to go in again when the European Tour completes the Desert Swing this week. Winning back-to-back is never easy but the Swede has done it before - won the Mercedes Benz and Dunhill Links events in the autumn of 2008, as well as posting four consecutive top-four finishes earlier that year on his way to the Order of Merit title - and has already rewarded each-way backers twice in this event. Now he's back in top form, the fancy prices have gone but there's still enough juice in his top quote of 16/1 to get involved.

Lee Westwood @ 12/1 bet365
In an event where the cream normally rises to the top, I make no apologies for including another short-priced runner in the staking plan and, lets face it, how can you leave Westwood out? After struggling to close out tournaments early last year, he really silenced the doubters when winning the season-ending Dubai World Championship when easily accounting for many of his opponents this week, and only bad fortune has prevented him from carrying on that good form this season. After his regular clubs went missing in Abu Dhabi, forcing him to miss the cut, lady luck again missed him out in Qatar when, despite playing with a cracked driver and then with a borrowed one, he still managed to shoot 11 under, which was good enough for third place. Third time lucky? I think so and while his price is nothing to write home about, I'm fairly confident it will be shorter at some stage during the final round, when we can trade out.

Thomas Bjorn @ 100/1 Blue Square
I can't believe I'm tipping up the Dane as I genuinely thought he'd gone at the game a couple of years back, such was his collapse in form from its peak at the turn of the millennium. However, eighth place in Qatar on Sunday (closed with an impressive 68) was more like the old Bjorn - the one who has posted five career wins on Tour and finished runner-up in the 2003 Open at Sandwich - and, as a winner here in 2001, he's simply crying out to be backed at three-figure odds. Could it be a case of 'Bjorn Again' (sorry) in Ryder Cup year?

Bubbling Under: Niclas Fasth (55/1 Paddy Power)
I'm not totally convinced he's as good as he once was but he has a good record here and ninth place in Qatar was one of his better efforts. No surprise then to see him in contention on Sunday.

Punters Beware: Rory McIlroy
The defending champ is sure to get himself in contention at some stage but until he starts converting more of his high finishes into wins (last year's success is still only his solitary Tour win), he can't be considered a value proposition this week at single-figure odds.

Recommended Bets:-
Robert Karlsson 1.5pts each-way @ 16/1 Ladbrokes
Lee Westwood 2pts @ 12/1 bet365
Thomas Bjorn 0.5pt @ 100/1 Blue Square
Thomas Bjorn (top-10 finish) 1.5pts @ 9/1 Stan James

 

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Tags: Dubai Desert Classic,  Emirates Golf Club,  Golf Betting,  Lee Westwood,  Niclas Fasth,  PGA Tour,  Robert Karlsson,  Rory Mcilroy,  Thomas Bjorn