The 2011 European Tour reaches its conclusion with this week’s Dubai World Championship, but who will come out on top?
Thanks to Rory McIlroy's success in Hong Kong on Sunday we still don't know who's going to win the Race To Dubai yet. The world's number one, Luke Donald, would have been safe had Rory not won last week but he's still a long odds-on favourite to hang on to a title he so richly deserves. If he does hang on he'll be achieving something nobody else has, and that's win the money lists on both the European Tour and PGA Tour in the same season - a truly remarkable accomplishment.
It's impossible to dislike Luke and I really hope he doesn't get caught. He's a great competitor, a fine, cheerful, upstanding family man and all-round good egg. He's also a gifted artist, the world number one golfer and he's in all probability about to pull off a feat never before achieved and in all likelihood never to be repeated. It's a funny ole world though, he's trading at over 100.0 (
Betfair) in the BBC Sports Personality market and he's even the outsider of the three golfers in the final ten!
Regardless of Rory's performance at this event, if Donald manages a top-nine finish he'll achieve that unique double - providing he doesn't finish ninth - tied with more than one player. Clear as mud then, huh?! Oddly enough, in last year's Dubai World Championship, Luke Donald tied ninth with one other player and if he repeats that feat and Rory McIlroy wins the tournament, Donald would still win the Race to Dubai, albeit by a mere €5. Surely we couldn't see that much excitement, could we?
Anyway, that's enough of the Race to Dubai, let's concentrate on the event in hand, and Donald might not have to worry about Rory anyway. The young Irishman was complaining on Sunday that he felt low on energy and he's apparently still struggling with a stomach virus he picked up in China in October. That would be why he's drifted from his original position as market favourite and it's more than enough for me to bypass him. To be honest, in a field this strong, I felt he was short enough anyway, without the doubts about his wellbeing, and the same can be said about the new favourite, Lee Westwood, but only just...
Nobody could fail to be impressed by Westwood at the Nedbank and he won the inaugural staging of this event very comfortably two years ago. Last year he finished just a shot shy of the play-off and it's hard to imagine him out of the frame this time around. He's the most likely winner but I've bypassed him on account of price and on account of the fact that alternatives were more than easy to find. This is one of those weeks when it's not a case of who to back but who not to back and I eventually whittled it down to just six!
First up is Paul Casey, a selection last week when he finished third behind Tiger Woods and also when he finished fourth at the recent HSBC Champions event.
Casey's game is in great nick right now and if he can eliminate elementary mistakes he'll take some beating. He dropped an incredible 16 shots last week - nine on the first day! So to finish within five of Tiger was some achievement. He finished sixth here on debut last year and he has a fine desert record - having won the Abu Dhabi Golf Championship twice.
Ian Poulter was an unlucky loser here last year but judging by his form in Hong Kong last week he could well go one better this time around. A few crucial putts just failed to drop on Sunday in Hong Kong and his title defence eventually fizzled out but he's another player who nearly always plays well in the desert and at 32.0 I thought he was worth backing.
Next up is my idea of the best value play this week. Like my first two picks, Louis Oosthuizen is also a fine exponent of desert golf and if you disregard his World Cup performance alongside Charl Schwartzel he comes here with form figures that read 5-60-4-7-3-8.
Having backed South Africa at the World Cup, I got up in the middle of the night to watch the final round a fortnight ago and I can assure you, it wasn't Louis' fault they lost. Schwartzel was all over the place and Louis saved them on numerous occasions with some lengthy putts before they inevitably dropped away. Left to his own devices again he could well get back amongst them here.
The theme is clear this week, desert golf specialists all the way and there are few better than Alvaro Quiros. He's a winner of the Qatar Masters and the Dubai Desert Classic and he finished alongside Westwood here in a tie for third last year. And at 44.0 he was a no-brainer pick to overcome last week's disappointment.
I always like to stick in a rag or two and the two I've selected this week are Freddie Andersson-Hed and James Morrison. Andersson-Hed finished seventh behind Quiros at the Dubai Desert Classic earlier in the year and he looked in good heart last time out when he finished eighth at the Johor Open.
Morrison was poor last week, flopping badly on day one, but I'm always prepared to overlook the odd bad round by Morrison. He suffers from Crohn's disease, an affliction that can strike at any time and if he was feeling unwell the poor performance is easily forgiven. Prior to last week he was in sterling form and at 400.0 and I'm happy to take a chance.
