Europeans have a great record in the Masters, but its nine years since we last won it - Jose Maria Olazabal’s triumph in 1999 was this continent’s 11th victory in 20 years, but our luck has run out since then. However, there were signs last year that the current generation can end the drought, with Justin Rose, Luke Donald and Paul Casey all making the top-10.
All three have taken to Augusta like ducks to water, but Rose in particular has looked the player most likely to break through in the Majors. His fifth-placed finish last year, when he’d looked a strong contender right through till the last few holes (one shot off the lead when teeing off on 17), kick-started a golden run in all four Majors, where his worst finishing position was just 12th. Nor was that the first time he’d shown promise here, having held the first round lead in 2004.
His form this year has been steady rather than spectacular – a trio of top-15’s on the Florida Swing – but he comes into this week fresh having had the last few weeks off to prepare and looks primed to make another big impression. He’s worth a dabble in the outright market at 40/1 while it lasts (bet365’s 35/1 is still fair), but the place to back him is the ‘Top European’ market, where 6/1 is still freely available - Betdirect, Boylesports, Stan James. Another top-five finish should be enough to win this market; as it was last year.
With his perfectly respectable Augusta record of 3rd/42nd/10th, Luke Donald would appear to offer some value at 8/1 (Betfred), but he has looked distinctly wobbly under pressure on several occasions, and could wilt if he gets into contention this week. Still, he’s a more solid proposition than Padraig Harrington (4/1 William Hill), whose Masters record is nothing out of the ordinary, and Paul Casey (16/1 Paddy Power), who is simply not playing well enough.
Sweden’s Daniel Chopra is interesting at 33/1 (Skybet) given that he has won on Tour earlier this year, and has the big driving and excellent putting game to prosper at Augusta. However, I’d rather back him at 12/1 with Betfred to be ‘Top Debutant’, where he looks a decent each way punt in a field of 20, half of which are no-hopers.
Recommended Bets:
Top European - Justin Rose 4pts @ 6/1 Betdirect, Boylesports, Stan James
Top Debutant – Daniel Chopra 1pt each way @ 12/1 Betfred (1/5 odds, 1.2.3.4)