With an increasing number of ‘shock winners’ on both the European and PGA Tours, who are the outsiders to look out for during the rest of 2012?
Bet on the European Tour and PGA Tour at Betfair
Results over the past fortnight have gone some way towards vindicating a couple of themes about the new golf order that I've been laying out on these pages for several months.
Firstly, that prolific winners amongst the game's elite are becoming few and far between, meaning the favourites rarely represent good value anymore. As Rory McIlroy, Lee Westwood and Tiger Woods showed over the weekend, class does not necessarily equate to finishing the job.
Secondly, as there has never been such strength in depth on both main tours, on any given week it is possible to identify several plausible outsiders at crazy prices. Last week it was the turn of Rafael Cabrera-Bello, a 250.0 chance with a promising reputation.
Here's another five such candidates who regularly catch the eye at silly prices:
Thorbjorn Olesen
When this 22-year old Dane joined the European Tour last season, following a short successful Challenge Tour campaign, many experts identified him as a star of the future. He's already been runner-up three times, and registered impressive top-20s amongst elite company in a couple more Gulf events recently. Yet because, typically for a young player, Olesen has also missed more than his share of cuts, he's often a rank outsider. Before making the top-10 in Abu Dhabi, he was around the 500.0 mark.
Bernd Wiesberger
A similar story can be told about this 26 year-old Austrian entering his second season on the main tour. Wiesberger has made the top-five on four of his last 16 starts, yet was available at a mammoth 700.0 before last week's encouraging top-25 in Dubai. Those odds are simply wrong and sooner or later, the market is going to wise up.
Tom Lewis
Despite courting much attention after an impressive Open performance as an amateur and an immediate breakthrough in the professional ranks, the fickleness that characterises betting markets these days means Lewis can suddenly be found among the rags. That early win in Portugal may have prompted an overreaction, yet because he failed to deliver at cramped odds on continents where he had no past experience, Lewis was available at over 200.0 during the Gulf Swing. Those conditions didn't prove to his liking, but expect the young Englishman to make a big impression once again when the tour returns to mainland Europe.
David Horsey
Horsey probably lacks the long-term potential of the above trio, but is another persistently under-rated character. Having won an event in each of the last two seasons at big odds and put up several more good challenging performances, he certainly owes any regular followers nothing and after a slow start to 2012, may again be wrongly dismissed by the market. As one of the world's best putters, Horsey is particularly worth keeping an eye on in low-scoring affairs.
Gareth Maybin
2011 saw Maybin's star wane after a series of near-misses during the previous two seasons, but the Northern Irishman showed enough during the Gulf Swing to think this might be the year he finally breaks through. If last week's 400.0 odds are any sort of guide, it could potentially come at odds that pay for a decade's worth of losers. However given his promising record in Asia, it may be worth considering a much shorter quote of 65.0 this week in India for the Avantha Masters.
