This week's PGA Tour action comes from TPC Deere Run, where Steve Stricker is defending his John Deere Classic title.
With the majority of the world's best golfers in action at this week's Scottish Open, the way might be clear for Steve Stricker to chalk up his third straight victory in the John Deere and bookmakers agree, making him a warm 7/1 favourite. Certainly, the form book says that this $792,000 prize is between the man from Wisconsin and Australia's new No.1 Jason Day (11/1 Stan James), who has finished runner-up in the last two Majors at Augusta and Congressional. It's 20/1 bar, which brings in the likes of Zach Johnson and Charles Howell III.
You can expect plenty of birdies / eagles this week and a winning score of around 20-under or better. Incredibly, Paul Goydos shot a 59 in the opening round last year and finished on 24-under, yet still lost out to Stricker, who shot rounds of 60 and 62 on his way to a record winning total of 26-under. That suggests the key stats to look out for are greens in regulation and birdie average, although just about anyone with a hot putter can win this birdie-fest.
My Three Against The Field:-
Charles Howell III @ 22/1 Boylesports
You can't rule out Stricker for sure as he's been in great this season, with top-20s in his last seven starts, including a victory at Memorial, and just for good measure he tops the aforementioned birdie average stats (4.53 per round). Whether he's quite a 7/1 shot even in this relatively weak field is another thing and I'm inclined to look elsewhere for each-way value.
Howell's recent form hasn't gone unnoticed by bookmakers either but I reckon there's still enough juice in his price to warrant support. Top-25s in his last four starts, including thirds in his last two at Southwind and Aronimink, suggest a player near the top of his game and his consistency (10 top-20s this season) is going to pay off sooner rather than later. Ranked 40th on Tour in GIR and 11th in scoring average, he certainly has the game to go well here.
Heath Slocum @ 40/1 Paddy Power
Jason Day and Zach Johnson command plenty of respect but I'm going to be slightly more adventurous with my second pick and side with Slocum. The four-time Tour winner tends to go well when a birdie-fest is called for and back-to-back top six finishes here in 2006 and 2007 are testament to that. This season, he's been playing some nice golf with a tie for 11th at Congressional and 17th at the Travelers to show for his last two starts. Having taken last week off, he'll be refreshed and raring to carry on where he left off.
Chris Stroud @ 66/1 Stan James
A wrist injury forced my final pick to withdraw from last month's St Jude Classic but he's not shown any signs of that since with eight consecutive rounds of par or better yielding finishes of tied-17th (Travelers) and tied-sixth (AT&T National). Interestingly for this week, he led the GIR stats for the week at Aronimink and was ranked fifth for proximity to the hole. If he can transform that sort of play to here, he's going to set up a stack of birdie opportunities and, if his putter gets hot, the 66/1 on offer could look huge come Sunday.
Recommended Bets:-
Charles Howell III 2pts each-way @ 22/1 Boylesports
Heath Slocum 1pt each-way @ 40/1 Paddy Power
Chris Stroud 1pt each-way @ 66/1 Stan James
