This event always has a low key feel to it due to its calendar position - most of the top players are preparing for the Open. However, the presence of the one of the hottest golfers on the planet right now, Kenny Perry, livens things up a bit.
The Course: TPC at Deere Run, Silvis, IL (par-71, 7,257 yards)
This is a stadium course specifically designed to host the John Deere Classic. Generally, it rewards accuracy and most of the players that do well here are ranked higher for GIR (greens in regulation) than Driving Distance. The three par-5’s are all reachable, although the 10th (longest at 583 yards) has a small green and many players opt to lay up. The 14th is the ultimate risk / reward hole. At 361 yards and downhill it’s driveable, but the punishment for missing the green is a blind shot to a well-protected green from the ‘Valley of Sin’.
Ross’ Top Tip: Jonathan Byrd @ 33/1 Paddy Power
Kenny Perry, with two wins and a play-off defeat in his last six starts, cannot be ruled out but, for punting purposes, last year’s winner Byrd is preferred at more than twice his odds. That win (shot 65-66 at the weekend!) came on the back of four missed cuts, but he’s in much better form this time round - led May’s AT & T Classic at the halfway stage before finishing fourth - and a stout defence looks almost assured.
Next Best: Tim Clark @ 28/1 Blue Square
I’m loathe to desert last week’s pick Pat Perez, who played perfectly well in 12th (agonisingly, two shots out of a place - he’ll no doubt win when my money‘s not down!), but Clark has the better course form, including when runner-up here last year. That should come as no surprise as, while accuracy isn’t essential on this course, it is well rewarded, and his driving and iron-play are the strengths of his game. Definitely worth an each way interest.
Outsider: John Merrick @ 66/1 sportingbet (60/1 bet365)
This might be a new name for many of you, but Merrick has been playing some nice golf this season, with three top-10’s to his name, the most impressive being his tied-6th finish in the US Open at Torrey Pines. He currently tops the Tour’s Total Driving category (distance and accuracy combined), so a first win can’t be too far away, and this week’s relatively weak field presents a good opportunity.
Ross’ Match Bet: Jonathan Byrd to beat Nick Watney @ 10/11 Stan James
In-running notes:
As Sean O’Hair showed in 2005, it’s possible for anyone in contention after round three to go on to win, so be wary of taking short prices about the leaders going into Sunday.
Recommended Bets:
Jonathan Byrd 1pt each way @ 33/1 Paddy Power
Tim Clark 1pt each way @ 28/1 Blue Square
John Merrick 1pt each way @ 66/1 sportingbet (60/1 bet365)
