The PGA Tour stays in California this week for the Northern Trust Open, which is being played at the Riviera Country Club for the 50th time.
There's no Tiger in the field but there is still a star-studded field on display, headed by last week's impressive winner Phil Mickelson, who is Paddy Power's 10/1 favourite. Winning back-to-back is never easy but you wouldn't put it past Lefty on a course he loves (won here in 2008 and 2009), although he faces strong opposition from the likes of Luke Donald (16/1 Blue Square) on his first Stateside appearance of the year, and a back-to-form Dustin Johnson (25/1 Totesport). Last year's winner Aaron Baddeley was noted staying on well at Pebble Beach last week and gets a 30/1 quote from bet365.
Riviera is what you'd call a classical, old-fashioned course, requiring golfers to think their way round, and has stood the test of time. Par is a good score on the par-4s (consistently ranked inside the top-10 on Tour for fewest birdies or better), and the narrow fairways (many with doglegs) and small greens place a premium on accuracy. Superior course management is therefore essential and first time winners are rare, with experience counting for plenty.
My Three Against the Field:-
Aaron Baddeley @ 30/1 bet365
I wouldn't put anyone off going in on Mickelson as 15 players have won this event more than once, although I think he's a better bet for the Masters at the same price. I might well end up having a saver this week but the headline pick has to be the Aussie at three times the price. The defending champ looks to have hit peak form at just the right time for this with a solo fourth at Pebble Beach, where he led the field in birdies, and he's always been a streaky player. I was expecting 25/1 to be chalked up after that performance, so the extra five points will do nicely.
Kevin Na @ 40/1 Paddy Power
I toyed with the idea of putting up Donald as, last year's missed cut aside, he can boast some excellent course form (3-6-2 on his previous three starts), but Na's superior price swung it for me. The American also scores heavily on course form - third and tied-10th on his last two visits - and he comes into this week at the top of his game, having posted top-5 finishes at Phoenix and Pebble Beach, where played every round under par. Keeping bogeys off your card will be key this week and that has been a feature of his game this season (ranked 10th for bogey avoidance), so there's every reason to expect him to go well again.
Ernie Els @ 80/1 Bodog (1/4 odds, six places)
The South African has looked like a player in decline for some time now but I'm prepared to give him another chance on a course he clearly loves. He finished third in the USPGA here in 1995, missing out on the Elkington-Montgomerie playoff by two strokes, and won what was then the Nissan Open in 1999. He hasn't missed a cut since, finishing third in 2007 and 10th on his most recent visit in 2010, and wrote on his website this week: "I'm raring to go and excited about bringing my range game on to this wonderful Riviera layout." Putting is his Achilles heel these days but there was nothing wrong with his second place finish at the Volvo Golf Champions two starts back and Bodog's 80/1, which comes with an extra place, looks to seriously underestimate his chance. A place only bet (Betfair are currently 15.5) wouldn't go amiss either, given his propensity for near misses.
Recommended Bets:-
Aaron Baddeley 1pt each-way @ 30/1 bet365
Kevin Na 1pt each-way @ 40/1 Paddy Power
Ernie Els 0.5pt each-way @ 80/1 Bodog / 1pt Top 5 Finish @ 15.5 Betfair
