Northern Trust Open: Experience Says Howell

Northern Trust Open (February 4th-7th)

Format: Strokeplay (126-man field)
Course: Riviera Country Club (par-71, 7,298 yards), Pacific Palisades, La Jolla, California
Weather: A good chance of rain on Friday and Saturday with drier weather expected for the final round on Sunday
Where to watch: Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting 10.00pm (UK time) Thursday
2009 Winner: Phil Mickelson (15 under)

Ross' Three Off The Tee:-

Charles Howell @ 40/1 Coral
This course is an old fashioned test of golf, requiring players to position their tee shots well, move the ball both ways in the air and keep out of trouble. It therefore takes a few years of playing before getting it right and Howell did just that in 2007 when beating Phil Mickelson in a play-off which, along with his two two other top-six finishes (tied-6th 02, 2nd 03), gives him a big fat tick in the course form box. Throw in the fact he's off to a flyer on the PGA Tour in 2010 with two top-10's already (not shot higher than 71 in 13 rounds), makes him an irresistible bet this week at 40/1 - I was expecting 33's so fill your boots!

Rory Sabbatini @ 30/1 bet365
Like Howell, Sabbatini knows his way around here. After finishing runner-up in 2002, he went one better in 2006 and has followed that up with two other top-10's (9th in 07, 6th last year). Clearly, he's comfortable on the track and is in good enough form this time round - runner-up to Geoff Ogilvy at Kapalua after a final round 62 and would have have finished closer than 39th at the Sony but for a poor final round - to once again make his presence felt. The shrewdies agree with me as they've already snapped up the 35/1, but there's still a bit of 30's going round if you're quick.

Carl Petterson @ 125/1 Skybet (top-20 finish @ 9/2 Paddy Power)
The Swede had a terrible 2009 and is relying on exemptions this year. Still, if he keeps on playing like he did in the Sony Open (5th) he will earn more than enough dough to keep the bank manager happy and I'm expecting him to be cashing a big cheque after this week as he has a bank of good form here - tied-7th in 2006, when he was only one of three players to shoot four rounds in the 60's, and tied-13th the following year. Granted, he has done much in his two visits since and missed the cut last week (hence his three-figure price) but a top-20 finish is well within his grasp and, with a bit of luck, he could well nick a place at massive odds.

Bubbling Under: Ernie Els (25/1 general)
Big Ernie was very tempting this week as he loves the Riv' (won here in 1999 and 3rd in 2007) and is playing with plenty of confidence right now. It won't be too long before he's back in the winner's enclosure.

Punters Beware: Phil Mickelson
The two-time defending champion (also finished second in 2007) feels his game is "coming round" and is the most likely winner for sure, yet I can't back him at a top price of just 7's - he was more than half those odds when winning 12 months ago!

Recommended Bets:-
Charles Howell 2pts each-way @ 40/1 Coral
Rory Sabbatini 2pts each-way @ 30/1 bet365
Carl Petterson 0.5pt each-way @ 125/1 Skybet
Carl Petterson (top-20 finish) 2pts @ 9/2 Paddy Power

 

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Tags: Carl Petterson,  Charles Howell III,  Ernie Els,  Golf Betting,  Northern Trust Open,  PGA Tour,  Phil Mickelson,  Riviera Country Club,  Rory Sabbatini