Northern Trust Open Tips

Ross Aylward - 17 Feb 2009

The PGA Tour moves on to its final California stop of the West Coast Swing - the Northern Trust Open - just outside of Los Angeles .

The Course: Riviera C.C., Pacific Palisades, CA (par-71, 7,298 yards)
Known as Hogan’s Alley (the legendary Ben Hogan won here three times in the late 40’s), Riviera is a quirky, specialists' course that takes plenty of knowing. It also sets up well for faders (left to right hitters) of the ball. The Poa Annua greens are smaller than average and have subtle contours, much like last week's at Pebble Beach. There are only three par-5’s - 1st, 11th and the 17th - while there is a bunker slap bang in the middle of the green of the par-3 6th  - I said it was quirky!

Ross Top Tip: Mike Weir @ 16/1 Paddy Power
The Canadian was my headline tip last week so, you can imagine, I was gutted when the final round was cancelled due to the weather with my man poised to challenge in second, albeit four shots off the leader Dustin Johnson. Still, after being denied a chance of victory, I reckon he'll be chomping at the bit this week and, as a two-time Riviera winner, I can't imagine him not being in the mix come Sunday. I'll be reinvesting my each way returns at 16/1 and I suggest you follow me in.

Next Best: Padraig Harrington @ 20/1 Coral
Considering last week's missed cut, which followed on from a tied-24th at the Buick Invitational, it's a slight stretch of the imagination to see the Dubliner winning this week. However, he's played well here in the past (seventh in 2007 and third last year) and 20/1 on the winner of the last two majors is too good to ignore, especially as there are doubts surrounding some of the other market leaders - see tournament lays below.

Outsider: Bob Estes @ 90/1 bet365
I can't recall ever backing the Texan before, but at 90/1 he's hard to resist. Why? Well, it was on this track that he finished tied-6th in the USPGA and he's since finished inside the top-20 six times in this event. Throw in the fact that he's playing his best golf for a long time this season - 12th in the Sony, 4th last week - and he looks to have a decent each way chance this week.

Tournament Lay: Phil Mickelson for a place – 5.3 on Betfair at the time of writing
Several of this week’s market leaders look prime lay candidates, including Mickelson, who is clearly struggling to find his game this season. Others worth opposing (either on the exchanges or in match bets) are Vijay Singh, who looked a long way from sharp when missing the cut at Pebble Beach, and Geoff Ogilvy, who has a dismal Riviera record of four missed cuts from six.

Ross' Match Bet: Mike Weir to beat Phil Mickelson @ Evens Ladbrokes

Recommended Bets:
Mike Weir 2pts @ 16/1 Paddy Power
Padraig Harrington 1pt each way @ 20/1 Coral
Bob Estes 1pt each way @ 90/1 bet365


 







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