Golf’s first Major of the year, played at it’s traditional home of Augusta National, with a limited field of 94, headed of course by world No.1 Tiger Woods. The top 44, and anyone within 10 shots of the lead, make the weekend. Bring it on!
The Course: Augusta National, Augusta, Georgia (par-72, 7,445 yards)
This was already a tough, long course before the recent changes, which has made it a long hitters paradise. That’s compounded by the minimal rough which allows errant tee shots to go relatively unpunished. The par-3’s and par-4’s are all tough so the real birdie / eagle opportunities are provided by the par-5’s - the 2nd, 8th, 13th and 15th. The bigger hitters will be able to reach these holes in two, while those players who hit the ball high are also at an advantage as they will be able to land their iron shots softly on the greens. A constant through all the changes, however, has been the fiendish, lightning-fast greens.
The Tiger Factor
I think Tiger will win this week, and probably by several shots, but is he value at 5/4? I make the suggestion below that he will probably trade at a bigger price during the event. However, considering his phenomenal form and Augusta record (four green jackets already), there’s a case for thinking he should be odds-on this week. I certainly wouldn't out anyone off backing my picks in the ‘Without Woods’ market that most bookies are offering.
Ross’ Top Tip - Geoff Ogilvy @ 25/1 Stan James
While Woods’ main rivals have been doing little to advertise their chances this week, the on-fire Aussie has had bookmakers running for cover. The way he fended off all the big names to win at Doral recently was impressive and he followed that up with a tie for second in Houston on Sunday. What’s more, his long hitting and high-ball flight are perfect for Augusta. He would have been bang in the mix last year but for a quadruple-bogey nine on the 15th hole during the third round, and is one of the few players who won't be scared of taking Tiger on this week. The 33’s has gone, but 25/1 is still well worth an investment.
Next Best - Retief Goosen @ 30/1 Paddy Power
My second pick was trading at fancy prices a few weeks back after a slow start to the season due to problems resulting from laser eye surgery (should have gone to Specsavers!). However, with those problems seemingly behind him, he has bounced back to form in the nick of time with a top 15 at Bay Hill and a second place finish in the CA Championship, forcing his odds to be slashed. The 30/1 is still worth having though, as he has a brilliant record at Augusta, with three successive top-three finishes to his name. A must for any staking plan this week.
Outsider - Andres Romero @ 125/1 Betdirect
For my final pick, I was toying with either KJ Choi and Justin Rose, but they can hardly be considered as ‘outsiders’, so lets take a chance on Romero at massive odds. The young Argentinean is going to be on a massive high after his maiden Tour win two weeks ago, and, more importantly, as a long hitter with a high ball flight, he has the game to do well at Augusta. This is his first Masters, which is a slight worry, but debutants can go well if they have a hot putter, as third-placed Luke Donald showed in 2005. I see he’s 13/2 in Betdirect’s Top ROW market, which is also worth snapping up.
Tournament Lay (Betfair): Tiger Woods (back later)
Not as crazy as it sounds when you consider that, for three of his four victories in 2008, Woods has traded at a significantly bigger price in-running than his pre-tournament price. In which case, we can always back him at a bigger price in-running to give ourselves a free bet - result!
In-running notes:
If betting in-running, the easiest holes on the course are the par-5 13th and 15th, which offer genuine birdie / eagle chances. On the other hand, the stretch of holes known as Amen Corner (9th, 10th, and 11th) are very demanding. Therefore, if two players are on the same score, the one about to play the 12th is in far better shape than the one on the 9th. All bar one (Zach Johnson) of the last 17 winners have come from the final group, so Augusta is not a catch-up course.
Recommended Bets:
Geoff Ogilvy 2pts each way @ 25/1 Stan James
Retief Goosen 2pts each way @ 30/1 Paddy Power
Andres Romero 1pt each way @ 125/1 Betdirect
Andres Romero (Top Debutant) 2pt @ 13/2 Betdirect