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Open Championship Betting Preview

The Open Championship returns to the "Home of Golf" for the first time since 2005 - the Old Course at St Andrews is played every five years in the Open roster - and with some bookmakers going 6/1 the field, it has the look of one of the most open Opens this century.

So, who is going to win? Well, you have to start with the world No.1, who is chasing a hat-trick of St Andrews Opens after recording eight and five shot winning margins respectively in 2000 and 2005, although any victory this time would be a landmark achievement for him after his personal problems. That said, he's still conjured up some of his old magic at the last two majors, finishing fourth in both the Masters and US Open, so write off his chances at his peril.

Phil Mickelson is not only chasing his first Open but Tiger's world No.1 ranking that will go with that. However, just one top-10 in 16 Open appearances doesn't bode well for his chances. In fact, he's been usurped as second favourite in most lists by Rory McIlroy, who is many people's idea of a future Open winner, particularly at St Andrews, where he nearly won the Dunhill Links Championship on only his second start as a professional.

Incredibly, there are 10 British players currently being quoted at 80/1 or less, which of course includes the current US Open champion Graeme McDowell and just about the most in-form player on the planet right now, Justin Rose, who arrives here on the back of two victories in the States.

And from the other side of the pond, you've got to give plenty of respect to Steve Stricker, whose record-breaking win in last week's John Deere Classic served notice that his injury problems are now well and truly behind him. Top-10 finishes in two of the three last Opens also bode well for his chances.

I could go on. However, I'll cut straight to my 'three off the tee' plus my idea of the best outsider and where not to place your money this week:-

Ian Poulter @ 33/1 Boylesports (1/4 odds, seven places)
I must admit Rory McIlroy was very tempting but bookmakers aren't taking any chances at 16/1, and the Englishman is far better value at over double those odds. The reigning WGC Matchplay champion has vastly improved since finishing 11th at St Andrews in 2005 and showed he has the game to win the Open when finishing runner-up at Birkdale in 2008. True, his recent form has been patchy but he played solidly for four days when finishing 18th in France last time, saying afterwards his ball-striking was as good as it has been for some time, and he'll be well-rested after taking last week off to practice with his mates in Scotland.

Alvaro Quiros @ 110/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds, seven places)
This one's more of a speculative pick but I've a hunch the big-hitting Spaniard will play well this week. His attacking style might not suit every Open venue but St Andrews is more forgiving than most and his length off the tee will give him a considerable advantage on the par-5s and several short, sometimes driveable par-4s, which is where scores will be made this week. In fact, he's in a very similar mould to John Daly, who tamed the course when winning here in 1995.

Ryan Moore @ 125/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds, seven places)
We've had three big-priced American winners since 2003 and Moore could be this year's 'surprise' package. Much improved since making the cut on his sole Open attempt in 2007, he won his first PGA Tour event last season at the Wyndham and has already posted several high finishes in majors, including 10th at the 2009 US Open and 14th at Augusta in April. Long and straight off the tee, he has the game to do well at St Andrews and arrives in top form having finished second and fifth on two of his last four starts.

Bubbling Under: Shane Lowry (200/1 Totesport, 1/4 odds six places)
Famously won last year's Irish Open (played in poor weather) as an amateur and will be full of confidence coming into this week after an excellent seventh place finish at Loch Lomond. I'm not expecting a win but another top-10 finish at 14/1 (Totesport) is a distinct possibility.

Punters Beware: Bookmakers paying out on only five places.
Avoid these like the plague, even if they are best price, and instead give your business to those bookmakers offering enhanced place terms. Both Boylesports and Paddy Power are paying a fantastic seven places each-way, while bet365, Skybet, Totesport, Betfred, Victor Chandler, Blue Square, and Stan James are paying out down to six places. The others should be ashamed.

Recommended Bets:
Ian Poulter 1.5pts each-way @ 33/1 Boylesports (1/4 odds, seven places)
Alvaro Quiros 0.5pt each-way @ 110/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds, seven places)
Ryan Moore 0.5pt each-way @ 125/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds, seven places)
Shane Lowry Top-10 Finish 1pt @ 14/1 Totesport

Good luck!


 

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Open Championship Betting Preview

The Open Championship returns to the "Home of Golf" for the first time since 2005 - the Old Course at St Andrews is played every five years in the Open roster - and with some bookmakers going 6/1 the field, it has the look of one of the most open Opens this century.

Read more »

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