He already has Open form having finished sixth to Harrington two years and his recent form is impressive.
The Open returns to Turnberry for the first time since 1994 when Nick Price was victorious. 15 years on and Tiger Woods, whose first Open as an amateur came the year after Price's victory, is a red-hot favourite to win his fifteenth major .
The Course: Turnberry (Ailsa Course), Ayrshire, Scotland (par-70, 7,204yards)
Apart from being around 250 yards longer with a few more strategically placed bunkers, the course is not much different to the one played in 1994. The weather was kind then and a record 148 rounds were played under par but, with less benign conditions forecast this week, par will be a good score. With the rough set to be punishing, accuracy off the tee will be important as will the ability to scramble. As you'd expect from a par-70 track, there are only two par-5's - the 538-yard 7th and 559-yard 17th.
The Tiger Factor:
You don't need me to tell you that Tiger is the most likely winner this week, but is he value at 5/2 (Skybet, Betfred)? I think not and I've laid out my reasons elsewhere on this site but, suffice to say, he's almost certainly going to be a bigger price in-play. That said, I wouldn't put anyone off backing either of my three selections (or their own) in the 'Without Tiger' market.
Ross Top Tip: Hunter Mahan @ 33/1 bet365 (1/4 odds, six places)
I toyed with the idea of putting Rory McIlroy up as my top tip but he's plenty short enough now and, although Mahan has come in for plenty of support himself, 33/1 and six places is not to be sniffed at. Unlike McIlroy, he already has Open form having finished sixth to Harrington two years and his recent form is impressive - form figures of 6-4-2 in his last three starts - including sixth in this year's US Open at the even fiercer Bethpage Black. Clearly, he thrives on tough golf courses and, providing the wind doesn't get above 30mph (not forecast to do so), he has to be in the hunt come Sunday.
Next Best: Ben Curtis @ 60/1 Skybet (1/4 odds, six places)
We all thought it was a fluke when Curtis won the Open back in 2003 at 500/1. However, his career has progressed since and top-eight finishes in the last two Opens proves beyond doubt that he is one the best American exponents of links golf. He warmed up nicely for this with a 4th place finish last time out - his third 10 in his last five starts - so another high open finish is very much on the cards, and why shouldn't he win it again?!
Outsider: Tom Lehman @ 750/1 Skybet (1/4 odds, six places)
With Woods at short odds, all sorts of top-class players are relegated to the 'outsiders' category, and I can see Ernie Els (40/1 Coral), Camilo Villegas (66/1 Sportingbet) and Mike Weir (100/1 Ladbrokes) going well this week, but Lehman is my idea of a genuine outsider. OK, it's 13 years since he won the Open, but he can still mix it with the young guns on the main Tour - he led the Transitions Championship after three rounds and can boast three top-25 finishes in his last seven starts - and his straight hitting is made for Turnberry. If you need more convincing, think back to last year at Royal Birkdale where a 50-something blonde-haired Aussie finished third.
Interestingly, Norman and Lehman head the betting in the 'Top Senior' betting, but Lehman at 9/4 (Paddy Power) rates the value.
Tournament Lays:
Tiger is tempting as a lay to back proposition on Betfair but, of the front runners, I'm particularly keen to oppose Geoff Ogilvy (unproven on tough links courses), Padraig Harrington (lost the plot) and Sergio Garcia (lost his confidence). I'm also looking to take on the John Deere Classic winner and runner-up, Steve Stricker and Zach Johnson, after they played a sapping 36 holes on Sunday.
Ross' 72-Hole Match Bet: Ernie Els to beat Geoff Ogilvy @ 10/11 Betfred - if you have one bet this week, make it this one!
Recommended Bets:
Hunter Mahan 2pts each-way 33/1 bet365 (1/4 odds, six places)
Ben Curtis 1pt each-way @ 60/1 Skybet (1/4 odds six places)
Tom Lehman 1/2pt each-way @ 750/1 Skybet (1/4 odds, six places)
Tom Lehman (Top Senior) 2pts @ 9/4 Paddy Power