If someone had offered me 16/1 on Padraig Harrington to be Top European at Turnberry straight after last year's Royal Birkdale success, I would have snapped their hand off - I would have been happy to back him in the outright market at that price! What a difference 12 months makes and, after a miserable run which has seen him fail to make a top-10 since the opening event of 2009, only the fiercest of Irish patriots is going to be interested in that price.

Sergio's form in 2009 hasn't been a great deal better. Since winning on his 'home' course last October, he hasn't seriously challenged anywhere and, while he's undeniably got the game to lift the Claret Jug one day, I can't see it happening this week. Even if he did manage to get into contention, you'd have to think he would find some way of throwing away the title, like he did at Carnoustie two years ago, and I'd rather back someone whom I thought was capable of winning the whole thing.

It's a big ask I know but, two years after winning the silver medal as best amateur at Carnoustie, 20-year-old RORY MCILROY looks ready to contend at the very least. He's been a professional for less than two years but is hardly a novice on links courses having played a lot of his early golf at Royal Portrush, and he's fully aware of what it takes to win an Open: "Par is always a good score at these weeks. Padraig (Harrington) always says that and I've taken it on board."

Of course, this is only his second Open but he's unlikely to be phased by the occasion and might even revel in it. Certainly, twentieth place on his Masters debut back in April, followed by tenth in the US Open suggests that, despite the lack of experience, he is well capable of rising to it. I like him in the outright market at 28/1 with Stan James, who are betting down to six places, but the 11/1 on offer with the same firm to be Top European looks an each-way bet to nothing (1/4 odds, four places) and simply has to be taken.

Henrik Stenson (16/1 Blue Square) looks a big danger. The Swede falls into the category of one of the best players without a major title to their name, but that has to come sooner rather than later. He's already won the 'fifth major' at Sawgrass this season, and after posting his best ever Open finish when third at Royal Birkdale last year, he's since registered further top-10's in the US Open and USPGA. The slight concern with him is his dip in form since winning the Players, but I suspect he'll raise his game this week.

Paul Casey (14/1 Totesport) and Lee Westwood (14/1 Boylesports) have stacks of titles to their name but they too lack a major title on their CV's. Sure, both are capable of winning one but they are possibly better suited to the US majors - Casey has played well at Augusta, while Westwood went close to winning the US Open. Another concern with Westwood is that he has seemingly forgotten how to win. That can't be said of Martin Kaymer (16/1 Boylesports), who has just won back-to-back events in France and at Loch Lomond, but this is a different test altogether.

Ian Poulter (14/1 Blue Square) has the game to win an Open as he showed when runner-up last year, but I'm not sure he has the temperament. Ross Fisher (16/1 Paddy Power) also played well for a long way last year, as did Graeme McDowell (25/1 bet365), who also showed up well at St Andrews in 2005. However, at a whopping 80/1 (Sportingbet), I can't resist a dabble on his fellow countryman DARREN CLARKE, who has hinted at a return to form in recent weeks and is a superb links player.

Recommended Bets:

Rory McIlroy 2pts each-way @ 11/1 Stan James
Darren Clarke 1/2pt each-way @ 80/1 Sportingbet