This year’s ‘fifth Major‘, as it is known by US Tour professionals, is a bit different. Firstly, there’s no Tiger Woods in the equation, which means we can have 12/1 the field.
It’s also moved from it’s traditional slot two weeks before the Masters to early May. A later start, allied with extensive renovations to primarily improve drainage, should make the course play a lot firmer and faster, this year with higher scores likely as a result.
The Course: TPC at Sawgrass, Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida (par-72, 7, 220 yards) Renowned for its island green par-3 17th, this Pete Dye-designed stadium course, is generally a test of accuracy over length. While the 17th provides some high drama and great television, statistically it’s not the most difficult of the par-3’s (the 8th is harder), and it’s the par-4 18th, with water to the left and trees to the right, where players are more inclined to drop a shot. The four par-5’s (2nd, 9th, 11th and 16th) are relatively easy. The smallish Bermuda greens are well protected and there's water everywhere.
Ross’ Top Tip: Henrik Stenson @ 40/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds, 1st six places*) From the front end of the betting, Adam Scott is the one whose course form and current form marry up most convincingly, but odds of around 12/1 are hardly generous. Instead, have a few quid on Stenson at nearly three times that price. The Swede made a spectacular debut at Sawgrass in 2006, when he claimed third place, and followed that up with a respectable 23rd place last year. Four top-10 efforts in his last six starts suggests he’s in good enough form to warrant support in the outright market, and at 15/2 for Top European honours.
Next Best: Hunter Mahan @ 66/1 Boylesports (1/4 odds, 1st six places*) All types of players have won here, but one common denominator has been their excellent ball striking and iron play, and Mahan has his tee-to green game in great shape. Second in the GIR stats at last week’s Wachovia Championship (finished 12th) and first at the Byron Nelson seven days earlier, it’s only a matter of time before the rest of game clicks. Further encouragement is gleaned from his sixth in last years’ Open at Carnoustie, another fast-running track. Odds of 40/1 to be Top US Player are also too good to miss.
Outsider: Steve Elkington @ 125/1bet365 Twice Players champion in the 1990’s, the Elk continues to play good golf at Sawgrass - 12th last year and sixth on his previous effort in 2005. At 45, he’s no spring chicken but, with three top-10’s and two other top-15 finishes this year, he is playing as well as he has done this century and, on the horses for courses theory, he has to contend again. He looks great each way value at 125/1 in the outright market, and at 33’s in the Top Rest of the World market.
*Paddy Power and Boylesports are paying 1/4 the odds on the first six home this week.
Ross’ Match Bet: Steve Elkington to beat Niclas Fasth @ 10/11 888sport
Tournament Lay (Betfair): Ernie Els
The Big Easy has never really contended here. In 14 starts, he has never managed better than eighth and his form since winning the Honda Classic in March has been desperate.
Recommended Bets:
Henrik Stenson 1pt each way @ 40/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds, 1st six)
Top European Player 1pt @ 15/2 Skybet
Hunter Mahan 1pt each way @ 66/1 Boylesports (1/4 odds, 1st six)
Top US Player 1pt each way @ 40/1 Stan James
Stephen Elkington 1/2pt each way @ 125/1 bet365
Top ROW Player 1pt each way 33/1 BetDirect