Rory McIlroy is Ladbrokes' 10/1 favourite for the so-called 'fifth Major', the prestigious Players Championship at Sawgrass, where the signature hole is the famous 17th 'Island Green'.
The Northern Irishman, beaten by a brilliant play-off birdie from Rickie Fowler in the Wells Fargo Championship on Sunday is clear market leader with all firms, the majority of which are happy, given the competitive nature of the event, to chalk up each-way terms of one quarter the odds the first six places. That's great news for punters but enthusiasm is tempered slightly by past results here, with the totally unfancied Stephen Ames, Fred Funk, Craig Perks (remember him?) being successful in the last 10 years, while plenty of outsiders have made the frame too. Clearly, don't be put off if you fancy one at a big price.
More recent results have been kinder and the chances of a third win for Europe in the last five years must be high with new world No.1 McIlroy, Lee Westwood (14/1 Skybet) and Luke Donald (14/1 Ladbrokes) all playing well and filling the first three places in the betting. Sergio Garcia, the winner in 2008 and solo second in 2007, is a top-priced 40/1 with bet365, and you can make good cases for Justin Rose and Graeme McDowell too. The Americans have fared less well in recent years and you have to go back to Phil Mickelson in 2007 for their last winner. Lefty is the top-priced Yank this time round at 22/1 with bet365, who are also biggest on Tiger Woods at 25/1, which is possibly the worst value of the week given his dismal performances of late and inconsistent Sawgrass record.
With most bookmakers paying out on six places this week, I'm not going to put up my usual 'three against the field' but give you six selections to have a crack with. And don't necessarily empty your betting bank before the tournament begins as the nature of the course ensures the leaderboard is extremely volatile throughout and the shrewder in-play backers can make a killing.
Luke Donald @ 14/1 Ladbrokes
Of the market leaders, the Englishman makes most appeal and it will be a surprise if he's not in contention come Sunday. He's never been the longest hitter and that's a serious disadvantage in most modern day Majors, but that goes out of the window here with driving accuracy, GIR and scrambling being the key stats. With proven skills in all three, he no doubt has the game to tame Sawgrass and he's already gone close on two occasions, finishing in a tie for second behind Funk seven years ago and fourth last year. Having topped the money list on both sides of the pond in 2011, he had a lot to live up to this season but his form has hardly dipped with his win at Copperhead sandwiched between sixth place at Doral and a third last time out in New Orleans, where he played the last 55 holes in 19-under with just one bogey. A serious contender? Don't bet against it!
Jason Day @ 40/1 bet365
The Aussie was another to enjoy a stellar 2011 with his highlights coming in the Masters, which he so nearly captured after McIlroy blew up in the final round, and in the US Open, where he finished second to the Northern Irishman. This season's efforts have been less than stellar so far but he's been impeded by injuries first to his thumb and more recently his foot, which caused him to withdraw from the Masters after 25 holes. He took some time off after that and only reappeared last week at Quail Hollow, where he played some steady stuff in finishing tied-9th. If back to anything like his best form, he could go very close this week and last year's tied-6th finish offers encouragement for that. We're taking a bit of a gamble on his fitness for sure, but the 40/1 is big enough to compensate.
Zach Johnson @ 55/1 bet365
I've long thought Johnson was a candidate to win the Players as his tidy game is perfectly suited to the place and he's been in the mix on several occasions, posting four top-25s, including eighth in 2007 and 12th last year, and missing the cut just once in eight appearances. The 2007 Masters champ did not enjoy the best of seasons in 2011 but has been showing signs of coming right back to his very best in recent weeks with a string of high finishes, including 8th at PGA West, 11th at Bay Hill and second just four weeks ago at Harbour Town, all of which have Bermuda greens like Sawgrass. A big week wouldn't do his chances of making the Ryder Cup team any harm either.
Ben Crane @ 66/1 Ladbrokes
Slowcoach Crane was a shade disappointing over the weekend at Quail Hollow after playing himself into contention, but I saw enough to make me think he can contend this week on a course he clearly loves - he was a top-six finisher three times in a row between 2008-10. I'd expect him to be quick out of the blocks too as he's been in the top-10 on no less than five occasions after the first round since 2006, including when leading in 2009, and he's definitely worth a stab in the 'First Round Leader' market.
Sean O'Hair @ 100/1 Coral
The Texan finished 11th behind Mickelson in 2007 but that doesn't tell the whole story as he led on nine-under after three rounds and was still in second place when coming to the 17th, the penultimate hole. His playing partner Mickelson hit his tee shot safely into the centre of the green but O'Hair, being desperate for a birdie, went for the pin and ended up hitting it over the green into the water, resulting in a quadruple seven. A nightmare like that would put anyone off but he's since posted a couple of top-20s (last two years in fact) and 15th place at Quail Hollow last week was a sign that he's on his way back after a slow start to 2012.
Padraig Harrington @ 110/1 Stan James
This pick takes a little more explaining and it's more based on a hunch that he will play well this week, but that wouldn't be the first time here as he finished second twice in a row in 2003-04. The winner of three Majors in the last five years (no other player in the field can claim that!), he's been posting some good numbers of late with his eighth place at Augusta suggesting he's not too far off peak form. So, while he's just as likely to miss the cut, he also makes considerable appeal at his three-figure price.
I'm also going to suggest backing some outsiders at huge odds on Betfair with a view to trading out in-running, and they are Camilo Villegas (294), Stewart Cink (332), Pat Perez (474) and Jerry Kelly (552), all of whom have enough bits of form here to recommend them. Stranger things have happened.
