The world's top players, with a couple of notable exceptions, are gathered at Sawgrass for what has traditionally been considered the fifth Major, the Players Championship.
Both Lee Westwood and Rory McIlroy are taking the week off but that still leaves a classy field headed by Tiger Woods, who is slight favourite ahead of Phil Mickelson and the in-form Luke Donald, with Sportingbet's 16/1 the top-of-the-shop price about Tiger claiming a second Sawgrass crown. The 2004 winner Adam Scott is next in the betting at 33s, closely followed by a gaggle of classy Americans.
It's as open as you like and past results suggest just about anyone can win here - Craig Perks (200/1 shock winner in 2002) and Fred Funk (the 48 year-old winner in 2005) are testament to that. That said, experience counts for plenty as keeping one's ball in play is imperative and, while the last three par-5s all offer eagle chances, many a card has been ruined by visits to the water. It's the wet stuff that gives the par-3 17th "Island Green" the potential for high drama and with wind expected to be a factor, especially over the weekend as rain and thunder rolls in, the leaderboard could change very quickly indeed.
My Three Off The Tee:-
Ben Crane @ 33/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds, 1.2.3.4.5.6)
Given their record of one win apiece in numerous visits, it's hard to fancy Woods or Mickelson, while you have to go back six years to find world No.3 Donald's last good finish here. Crane, on the other hand, can boast a fourth, fifth and sixth place finish the last three years here and, what's more, he's over double their odds at 33/1 with Paddy Power*. Granted, his 2011 form is nothing to get excited about but he was tied-sixth at The Heritage two starts back and it was May last year when he hit top form, with his fourth place here followed by seventh at the Byron Nelson and third at Colonial. A fourth Tour title will surely go his way soon and I fancy it could come this week.
Paddy Power are one of five firms - the others being bet365, Skybet, Boylesports and Stan James - offering each-way backers one quarter the odds, six places, so don't place your bets with anyone else!
Zach Johnson @ 66/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds, 1.2.3.4.5.6)
Another player who knows his way round here is Johnson and, while is record isn't spectacular - made five cuts out of six and finished 8th, 16th and 22nd - there is enough in there to suggest he can make a challenge. Certainly, he should have done better than tied-22nd last year as he was bang in contention after a third round 67, only to blow out with a closing 75. That was uncharacteristic as he has a habit of converting when in contention and, after a slow start to the season, he gave notice of a return to top form by finishing tied-sixth at Quail Hollow last week. If that still hasn't convinced you, perhaps the 66/1 with Paddy Power (six places) will?
Andres Romero @ 100/1 Skybet (1/4 odds, 1.2.3.4.5.6)
The odds are what swayed me to include the Argentinian in the staking plan. On his 2010 form, I wouldn't back him at 1000/1 but recent finishes of eighth at New Orleans and 16th last week hint at a return to the sort of form that saw him finish third in the Open (2007) and post top-10s in the Masters and PGA Championship (both in 2008). Considering he ended that year in the world's top-30, his current ranking of 183rd highlights his collapse, but he's much better than that and the atmosphere of this 'major' could spark a further revival.
Other players I fancy to play are Adam Scott, who claimed the second of his seven Tour wins here in 2004, and will be fresh than most coming into this after taking three weeks off, and Padraig Harrington, who has twice finished runner-up here in 2003 and 2004. Totesport go a standout 55/1 on the Irishman in their outright market but I'm more tempted by their 14/1 on him to be Top European.
Recommended Bets:-
Ben Crane 2pts each-way @ 33/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds, 1.2.3.4.5.6)
Zach Johnson 1pt each-way @ 66/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds, 1.2.3.4.5.6)
Andres Romero 1pt each-way @ 100/1 Skybet (1/4 odds, 1.2.3.4.5.6)
Padraig Harrington Top European 1pt @ 14/1 Totesport
