If he came back to that sort of form, 33/1 would be way too big.
The Race to Dubai, Ryder Cup points and €3m prize money, have resulted in 13 of the world's top-50 players teeing up at the Oceanico Victoria Golf Course for this week's Portugal Masters
The Course: Oceanico Victoria Golf Course, Vilamoura, Portugal (par-72, 7,231 yards)
This resort-style track is hosting this event for the third successive year and, if the results of the last two years are anything to go by, long-hitting, aggressive players should come to the fore. The course itself is fairly flat, with many fairway bunkers and water in play on seven holes. The Bentgrass greens, though, are very undulating and, with a dry and sunny week forecast, are expected to be running fast.
Ross' Top Tip: Alvaro Quiros @ 33/1 Ladbrokes
I've made some good profits backing the big-hitting (average drive 315.8 yards!) Spaniard in the past, but it's knowing when to back him. He can be pretty bad at times and even throw in the 80+ plus score but, after an inconsistent summer, he's hinted at a return to form of late (middle rounds of 67-67 last week in Madrid) and this is his track. On his debut here in 2007, he opened with a pair of 67's on his way to 11th place, and then romped to victory by three shots last year (tipped up here at 80/1!). If he came back to that sort of form, 33/1 would be way too big.
Next Best: Ross Fisher @ 20/1 Paddy Power
Such is the quality of this week's field that I can see one of the established names winning and Fisher is just about guaranteed to give us a good run for our money. Forget his performance last time out in Scotland (tied-80th) as that was only his second start back after the USPGA. With that run under his belt, I reckon he'll be ready to challenge on a course which suits his attacking style of play and if evidence of that was needed, just take a look at his third place finish to Quiros last year.
Outsider: Steve Webster @ 60/1 William Hill
Not quite in the 'outsider' bracket at 60/1 but I daren't leave him out the staking plan. He's another who has shown a liking for this course having won the inaugural event here in 2007 and followed that up with third place 12 months later. There must be something about this part of the world he likes (the food and the weather perhaps!) as he has now recorded top-10 efforts in each of his last four starts in Portugal. Granted, his form has been a bit in and out since his second place in the European Open back in May but I'm hoping a return to the Algarve will do the trick.
Ross' 72-Hole Match Bet: Rory McIlroy to beat Padraig Harrington @ Evens Totesport
Tournament Lay: Padraig Harrington - win and place market on Betfair
Vying for favouritism with McIlroy this week and has a house near the course, but I'm not sure his mind will be fully on the job. The Irishman was not impressed with plans by European Tour chiefs to make members commit to more events in future and his comments have resulted in a war of words with other players. Besides, he seriously underperformed in Scotland two weeks ago.
Recommended Bets:
Alvaro Quiros 1pt-each-way @ 33/1 Ladbrokes
Ross Fisher 1pt each-way @ 20/1 Paddy Power
Steve Webster 1pt each-way @ 60/1 William Hill