Considering having a bet on this year’s fourth and final major? Then it might pay to consider the following first before wading in. I’ve included the best current prices in brackets.
1. The course. This year’s USPGA will be played at Oakland Hills Country Club, Bloomfield, Michigan, a par-70 track, which this week will play to 7,395 yards. It has been the site of 14 major championships, including six U.S. Opens, two U.S. Senior Opens, two PGA Championships, both the USGA Men's and Women's Amateur and, most recently, the 2004 Ryder Cup.
2. Golfers for courses. You’ve heard of horses for courses but the same is true with golfers, although you have to go back to that Ryder Cup of 2004 to find any worthwhile course form. That year saw a European rout of the Americans (19 1/2 - 9 1/2), with top marks going to Lee Westwood (25/1 VCbet) and Sergio Garcia (25/1 totesport), who both scored four and a half points, while Padraig Harrington (20 Betfair) was not far behind with four points. Interestingly, Chris DiMarco (150/1 BetDirect) was top scorer for the Americans that week.
Going back a little further will reveal that Hunter Mahan (50/1 Paddy Power) finished runner-up at Oakland Hills in the 2002 US Amateur, after which he said: "I like the way every hole looks to me. I feel comfortable on every hole. There's really not a tee shot I feel uncomfortable about or a putt that I don't like."
3. Saying that, the course has undergone several changes since the Ryder Cup, not least the lengthening of 15 holes for an additional 346 yards, bringing the total yardage to 7,445 yards (will play to slightly less this week). In addition, fairway bunkers have been moved and beefed up, and landing zones tightened. It will certainly play ‘tougher’ than in 2004, although compared to some of the courses used for the US Open, it will seem ‘easy’ in comparison. A winning score of around ten under would be my guess.
4. Experience counts. Tiger Woods continued the well-established pattern of experienced players in their 30’s winning when winning at Medinah in 2006 (he’d just turned 30) and at Southern Hills last year. In fact, he was the seventeenth ‘30 something’ to win in the last 22 years.
5. There used to be a tendency for this tournament to be won by first-time major winners - Rich Beem in 2002 and Shaun Micheel in 2003 being the most recent examples. However, the successes of Vijay Singh (22/1 Stan James) in 2004, Phil Mickelson (10/1 Ladbrokes) in 2005 and Tiger Woods in 2006 and 2007 have put a stop to that.
6. Don’t be afraid to back an outsider. The USPGA has one the highest incidences of outsiders in the frame of any tournament. Indeed, up to 2006 there had been at least two 125/1+ shots in the pay-out places each year this century.
7. Backing a European golfer? You might want to think again. The fact is, no European has won this tournament since it changed from matchplay to strokeplay back in 1958. And you have to go back to Scot Tommy Armour in 1930 to find a European winner at all, although Nick Faldo, Monty, Thomas Bjorn and Sergio have gone close.
8. Betting in-running? Then wait until after the third round. Tiger’s win last year maintained the recent sequence of round three leaders (or joint leaders) going on to win. He was the tenth in the last eleven years!
9. Last but very much not least, shop around for value. Why take 25/1 when you can get 28/1 elsewhere?! The only exception would be if the shorter quote comes with an extra place. It’s a close call, but having that extra place on your side is worth sacrificing a few points in the betting for. At the time of writing, bet365, Boylesports, Blue Square, Paddy Power and 888sport were paying out on six places at 1/4 odds. In my opinion, it’s about time this was the industry standard!