The inaugural Race to Dubai throws up some impressive numbers. 53 tournaments in 26 destinations, with the top 60 players qualifying for the $20million Dubai World Championship at Jumeirah Golf Estates in November 2009, where a new European No.1 will be crowned. And Sergio Garcia is cracking each way value at 12/1 with Betfred to end up atop the standings.
With Tiger Woods deciding not to apply for European Tour membership, effectively ruling himself out of the Race, the mantle of favouritism falls on Padraig Harrington, a best-priced 9/1 with Paddy Power. The world No.5 has had a career-best season, winning two Majors and finishing second to Robert Karlsson in the Order of Merit, but it's hard to imagine him matching those achievements in 2009 and he looks an uneasy favourite.
Similar comments apply to Karlsson (11/1 VCbet), while Lee Westwood (11/1 Coral) is becoming expensive to follow. The Worksop Wonder went close to winning several events this season, including the US Open (he was a shot away from the play-off between Tiger Woods and Rocco Mediate), and the 35-year-old's nerve may not be what it used to be.
At 28, Sergio Garcia should be approaching the very peak of his powers and this could be the season he finally realises his massive potential and wins a Major. With the four majors and the three WGC events all counting towards the race, the world No.3 is sure to rack up plenty of bucks in these events and he will also be keen to include the five Spanish counting events in his schedule, including the lucrative World Match Play Championship, which has been switched from Wentworth.
I also like the way the Spaniard has been talking up his chances in the Race, saying: "I want to be in it and I want to win it. I was pleased with last season but I believe I can take some big steps forward in the coming year." Obviously then, he'll be looking to get his 2009 campaign off to a flyer when he tees up for the first counting event, this week's HSBC Champions tournament in China, and considering his great form of late, he must have a great chance of banking the first prize on offer of $830,000, in which case the 12/1 on offer for the Race will be history.
Of the rest, up and coming youngsters Martin Kaymer (16/1 Blue Square) and Ross Fisher (20/1 William Hill) could give their supporters a good run for their money, but they still lack consistency and, unlike Garcia, they have yet to do it in the Majors. Ernie Els (18/1 BetDirect) has been there and got the t-shirt as far as the Majors are concerned, but he has looked well short of his best for some time now and age might be catching up with him.
There has been a lot of speculation recently over the likes of Phil Mickelson (16/1 bet365), Vijay Singh (18/1 VCbet) and Anthony Kim (25/1 Paddy Power), who have indicated that they might switch allegiance from the US Tour and play in the 12 events required to qualify for the grand finale in Dubai. However, until their full 2009 schedule is known, it makes sense to concentrate on those players who are fully committed to the European Tour and, of those, Garcia looks the rock solid each way wager.
Recommended Bet:
Sergio Garcia 2pts each way @ 12/1 Betfred (1/4 odds, 1.2.3.4)