After posting back-to-back wins, Ernie Els has displaced an out-of-sorts Phil Mickleson as favourite for this week's Shell Houston Open at the Redstone course in Texas, the event's home since 2006.
Last year's winner Paul Casey is also in the field, while Padraig Harrington and Rory McIlroy bolster the European contingent for what is the final warm-up tournament for next week's Masters at Augusta.
As you'd expect for a course of this length (7,457 yards), big hitters will have an advantage this week (as always!), although the past four renewals suggest the premium is more on hitting greens in regulation (GIR). Just don't expect too many birdies at the final two holes: the par-4 17th (489 yards) and 18th (488 yards).
Rain and thunderstorms are forecast Friday into Saturday and the wind is nearly always a factor in this part of the world, which might make a morning tee time advantageous.
Ross' Three Off The Tee:-
Hunter Mahan @ 25/1 Paddy Power
The young Texan has a solid record here with three top-15's in his last four starts, including tied-6th last year, when he ranked first GIR. Always superb from tee to green, his putting is a lot sharper than it was 12 months ago and his confidence will have been bolstered by his second PGA Tour win in Scottsdale last month. Furthermore, at 25/1, he's superior value to this week's market leaders.
Kevin Streelman @ 50/1 Ladbrokes
Had a chance of winning the Puerto Rico Open last month but a final round of 73 cost him any chance of victory and he had to settle for third place behind surprise winner Derek Lamely. Still, he didn't let that bother him as he bounced back with a tied-7th at Bay Hill, where he was tied-4th in GIR, and his course debut here in 2008 yielded a creditable 14th place. A streaky player, he's worth following in his current rich vein of form and on a course that suits.
Fred Couples @ 40/1 William Hill
Old "Boom Boom" has turned 50 this year but he's no back number - far from it! In four events on the Champions League Tour this season, his form figures read 2111, and that makes him of major interest coming into one of his favourite events. He won it back in 2003 (albeit on a different course) and has since shown a distinct liking for Redstone, having finished tied-4th in the 2008 renewal and tied-3rd last year. In fact, it's hard to imagine him not having another good week and 10/1 a place has a nice ring to it.
Bubbling Under: Jason Day (100/1 bet365)
The big-hitting Aussie finished tied-8th on his debut here last year and played better last than his finishing position of tied-25th at Bay Hill suggests (ranked 2nd in GIR).
Punters Beware: Phil Mickelson & Ernie Els
For completely different reasons. Mickelson is struggling for form and can't be backed with any confidence right now, while I suspect Els is regretting having committed to this event and will surely have one eye on next week's first major of the year.
Recommended Bets:
Hunter Mahan 1.5pts @ 25/1 Paddy Power
Kevin Streelman 1pts each-way @ 50/1 Ladbrokes
Fred Couples 1pt each-way @ 40/1 William Hill