South African Open: Maybin a Must Bet

Last week's top tip and runner-up (groan) Charl Schwartzel heads the betting for this week's South African Open - the last competitive golf event of the year.

The Course: Pearl Valley Golf Estates, Paarl, Western Cape, South Africa (par-72, 7,319 yards)
A Jack Nicklaus-designed course which is over-looked by the majestic Drakensteinberg mountain range. It is generally flat with generous fairways and slick Bentgrass greens. There are four par-5's - the 3rd (the longest at 623 yards), 5th, 13th and 18th. The weather is set to be hot and sunny, although Friday in particular could see blustery conditions.

Ross' Top Tip: Gareth Maybin @ 20/1 bet365
No Ernie Els to worry about this week, which is a shame as these days he makes the market for everyone else - hope you took my advice and laid him last week! I'm not overly keen on this week's jolly Schwartzel either. He just about deserves to be favourite but his course record (31st and 16th) is nothing to get excited about and his price of 11/1 (Blue Square) hardly gets my punting juices flowing. Next in the betting are the Hansens, Anders and Soren, who have to be respected (especially Anders, whose last four outings in South Africa read 1-1-6-3), and the inconsistent Richard Sterne, who is defending this week.

Twelve month's ago, Sterne beat Maybin in a play-off and the latter must have a great chance of going one better. That was one of six top-10 finishes for the Northern Irishman in what was a terrifically consistent rookie season and a breakthrough win is surely just around the corner. In last week's Alfred Dunhill Championship, he closed with a double-bogey but still finished in a tie for fourth place, so he clearly likes playing in this country. The only slight quibble is his price of 20/1, but there's not a great deal of strength in depth to this week's field so perhaps I'm just being greedy.

Next Best: Thomas Aiken @ 35/1 Paddy Power
The Springbok is another maiden on Tour but not for long surely. Every pro is capable of throwing four good rounds together, but to play well on a consistent basis you need a solid swing and Aiken's is a classic one. Seven top-10 finishes this year are testament to that and he has been playing some nice golf on the Sunshine Tour in recent weeks - until last week that is!

Granted, his missed cut at Leopard Creek was somewhat disappointing considering he'd made the frame there in 2008, but he's much better than that and the upside is that we can back him at 35/1 this week in what is a weaker-looking event. He finished tied-22nd here last year, which doesn't tell the true story as he was bang in contention going into the weekend after a second round 64.

Outsider: Hennie Otto @ 80/1 Skybet
Considering the weather forecast, I'm keen to have one good wind player in the staking plan and Otto, who has been making hay on the Sunshine Tour in recent weeks, fits the bill nicely. Conditions were blustery when he shot a closing 66 to force a play-off in Namibia last month (which he won) and, although this is a much tougher event, he is worth chancing at 80/1 (20/1 a place).

Tournament Lay: Charl Shwartzel in Betfair's place market and match bets
Doesn't have a great record here and looked a bit suspect under pressure last week.

Ross' 72-Hole Match Bet: Gareth Maybin to beat Charl Schwartzel @ 6/5 Coral

Recommended Bets:
Gareth Maybin 11/2pts each-way 20/1 bet365
Thomas Aiken 1pt each-way 35/1 Paddy Power
Hennie Otto 1pt each-way 80/1 Skybet

 

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Tags: Charl Schwartzel,  European Tour,  Gareth Maybin,  Golf Betting,  Hennie Otto,  Pearl Valley Golf Estates,  South African Open,  Thomas Aiken