The FedEx St. Jude Classic takes place in Memphis this week and David Toms should go well in this PGA tournament, writes Ian Hudson.
David Toms has the ideal profile to record a second tournament win in the current season at the St Jude Classic on the US Tour this week. Brian Gay has an excellent course record at the TPC Southwind course in Memphis that has hosted this event since 1989. Zach Johnson has the right combination of course and current form to make him a contender this week.
The field for this tournament is relatively weak with only Lee Westwood from the world’s top 20 in attendance. Westwood won this event last year and the current world number two is the bookmaker’s favourite. The absence of the other players from the higher echelons of the world rankings is probably due to this tournament’s place in the calendar, taking place in the week before the US Open, the second major of the season.
The course has just two par fives in a par of 70 so length off the tee is not a significant advantage. The results since the course was remodelled in 2005, making some fairways narrower, suggest driving accuracy and hitting greens in regulation are the key attributes to score well. The relatively small greens also indicate that hitting the greens in the correct number of shots will give accurate players an advantage.
I have developed my own ratings system based on current form, course form and key attributes. Toms has the highest rating of any player in any tournament this season to date. He really does have everything in his favour this week and he is rested after winning the Colonial tournament three weeks ago. That followed a play-off loss in the Players Championship, against the strongest field of the year.
The selection’s course form is exemplary comprising seven top 10’s overall in nine starts at Southwind. In fact nobody can rival Tom’s record at this venue. From 2002 to 2005 his record reads fourth, Won, Won, second. In the last five years he’s made the cut and finished in the top 20 on each occasion. He’s in a great run of form and playing as well as he did at the start of the decade and can again prosper on what must be one of his favourite courses.
If Toms’s course and current form were not sufficient indicators of his chances this week then the strengths of his game also suggest a player ideally suited to this type of course. He currently lies third for driving accuracy and second for hitting greens in regulation. He is also second for bogey avoidance which is another positive indicator as average scores generally exceed 70 on this week’s course.
Zach Johnson has not played for three weeks so is another rested player in preparation for a tournament and course that suits his game. He has top 12 finishes in his last three starts, finishing within six shots of the winning score on each occasion. He’s also made the top 12 on his last two appearances at Southwind. He ranks 15th for bogey avoidance and seventh for driving accuracy. He scores well on this type of course because accuracy from tees and fairways is part of his skills profile.
My third selection for this tournament is Brian Gay because he combines good course form with a decent run of current form. He currently leads the tour for driving accuracy and has three top 15’s on this course in the last three years. He’s made 10 consecutive cuts before this week and made the top 15 in two of his last three starts. Gay is another player whose strengths are more about accuracy than power so his game is well suited to the course conditions this week.
FedEx St. Jude Classic
2 units win David Toms at 15.0
1 unit win Zach Johnson at 18.5
1 unit win Brian Gay at 25.0
