The PGA Tour’s top 30 players will contest the TOUR Championship this week, with the action getting under way in Atlanta on Thursday.
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The field has been split into two-ball pairings with every man looking to make a flying start, and here are the five best two-ball bets on day one.
3u Keegan Bradley @ 2.6 (v Adam Scott)
Calling Adam Scott right has been one of the hardest tasks for golf punters in 2011, and that inconsistency makes him a dodgy odds-on chance in this finale to the regular PGA Tour season. When on his best form, Scott finished runner-up in the Masters and won the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational in superb style. Those efforts suggested the man once described as the 'next Tiger Woods' might finally fulfil his potential, but on both occasions, he failed to follow up. His record at East Lake is similarly erratic, winning the title in 2006 but finishing 26th and 27th in two cracks at this 30-man event since.
Scott's fate usually boils down to his putting, and last week's evidence does not bode well, as he ranked 60th out of 69 for putts per round. In contrast, PGA winner Keegan Bradley produced his best performance since that life-changing afternoon, finishing 16th at Cog Hill even after a poor final round. That's enough to make this under-rated player a good value outside bet.
4u Jonathan Byrd @ 2.6 (v Bubba Watson)
Bubba Watson is another big-name odds-on favourite well worth taking on. In nowhere near the form that brought two victories before May, Bubba was awful at Cog Hill, ranking last for greens in regulation, and hitting just 35% of fairways over the weekend. Neither previous visit to East Lake offered any suggestion that he likes the course, finishing last and 30th on those occasions.
His opponent here, Jonathan Byrd, also struggled in 23rd on his sole previous visit, but has arguably improved over the past 12 months. He found his 'A-game' around this time last year, winning twice, and has some recent form in the bag, finishing fifth at the Barclays.
6u David Toms @ 1.95 (v Mark Wilson)
Mark Wilson made a nice profit for my Find Me a 100 Winner column last week by sharing the halfway lead, but was so bad afterwards that he must be one to oppose on his East Lake debut. Normally a sound front-runner, Mark's confidence eroded markedly after a couple of errors on Saturday.
Moreover, his first round opponent looks rock-solid. David Toms has turned back the clock this year, winning at Colonial and challenging strongly for numerous elite events, and must be on any short-list for this title. Six visits to East Lake have yielded five top-15s, with a best of third back in 2002.
6u Gary Woodland @ 2.2 (v Steve Stricker)
One of the key betting angles of this FedEx Cup series lies in finding out-of-form or injured players, and opposing them. Because of the huge rewards, those who might otherwise have taken a rest feel compelled to chase that $10M bonus prize. Take the example of Steve Stricker, who struggled in the first two play-offs before pulling out of the BMW Championship with a neck injury, but has yet to withdraw from East Lake. One must assume that decision, or at least the delay, is because Steve knows he has an excellent mathematical chance of winning the FedEx Cup.
Perhaps he will pull out before the start, but if not, Gary Woodland must be taken at odds-against. Irrespective of his opponent's concerns, Woodland has every chance of glory, starting the week in 11th place on the FedEx list. Gary's consistency during this rookie season has been a revelation, and it would be no surprise to see him grab a second title of the year.
5u Webb Simpson @ 1.95 (v Dustin Johnson)
Of the two FedEx leaders, there's no question that Webb Simpson arrives at East Lake in better form. He's won twice since the start of August, and only missed one top-15 since March. In contrast, Dustin Johnson has had a dire play-off series, particularly last week at Cog Hill where he finished 65th out of 69 starters, and second last for putts per round. Plus Dustin struggled badly on both previous visits to East Lake, finishing 22nd and 27th out of 30. The only slight negative is that Simpson is making his course debut, but given how many other top-class courses he's taken immediately to this season, there's nothing to really worry about on that score.
