The Masters: Case The Ace

There’s something about the Masters that captures the imagination of every golf punter and this week’s renewal promises to be a real humdinger of a tournament.

The Course: Augusta National, Augusta, Georgia (par-72, 7,445 yards)
Despite being slightly shorter this year, the course is still a long hitter’s paradise and that is compounded by the lack of rough, meaning errant tee shots go relatively unpunished. The par-3’s and par-4’s are all tough so the real birdie / eagle opportunities are provided by the par-5’s, which are the 2nd, 8th, 13th and 15th. The bigger hitters will be able to reach these holes in two, while those players who hit the ball high are also at an advantage as they can land their second shots ‘softly’ on the putting surfaces. 

The Tiger Factor:
The 14-times champion appears to be peaking at just the right time for the first Major of the year and the 9/4 (Coral, Ladbrokes, Betfred) on offer is a perfectly reasonable price. However, he nearly always trades at bigger odds in-running so, while I will ensure he’s on my side this weekend, I’m going to wait a while before backing him.

Of course, that won’t stop me from having a few bets pre-tournament  (it’s the Masters after all!), although I wouldn’t put anyone off backing the three players I’m about to discuss in the betting ‘without Tiger’ market that most bookmakers are offering.

Ross’ Top Tip: Phil Mickelson @ 9/1 Skybet
The biggest threat to Woods is undoubtedly dual Masters champion Mickelson, who along with his two victories can boast 11 top-10 and six top-five finishes at Augusta. With a record like that, each-way backers have a serious chance of a return and the good news is that he has drifted out to a very nice price after missing the cut in Houston last week. Don’t let that put you off, though, as he was out in the worst of the weather and, after his bad start, he can be forgiven for losing heart and deciding on an early plane to Georgia.

Next Best: Paul Casey @ 33/1 Stan James
Case the Ace will be oozing with confidence after notching his first win on US soil last Sunday and I’m confident he can keep the momentum going with a sold display this week. After he finished sixth on his Masters debut in 2004, I marked him down as a sure-fire Masters winner of the future and top-11 finishes in each of the last two years confirm that opinion. So far in 2009, he’s won the prestigious Abu Dhabi Championship and reached the final of the WGC Matchplay, and when his putter gets hot he looks as good as anyone else in the world, including you know who.

Outsider: Nick Watney @ 50/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds, SIX places)
The Californian landed bettingpro followers a nice 66/1 touch when winning the Buick Invitational back in February, and he has proved that was no fluke with a string of decent performances since. However, it’s his play at Augusta last year on his debut that makes him interesting as regards a punt this week. In gusting 35 mph winds, he was only one of four players to break par on the final day which helped him to share of 11th place and he clearly believes he can have further success here: “I play a draw, and we all know it’s a draw-type of golf course. Paddy Power’s six places are the icing on the cake.

Tournament Lays: Ernie Els and Vijay Singh
Several players in this field are well past their best, including two former champions in Els and Singh. The latter in particular has looked a shadow of his former self this season, missing three of his last five cuts. Take them both on in match and group bets this week.

In-running notes:
When betting in-running, bear in mind that the stretch of holes known as Amen Corner – the 11th, 12th and 13th – are very demanding. Therefore, if two players are on the same score, the one who has already played these holes is in far better shape.

Recommended Bets:
Phil Mickelson 4pts each-way @ 9/1 Skybet
Paul Casey 1pt each-way @ 33/1 Stan James
Nick Watney 1pt each-way @ 50/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds, SIX places)

 

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Tags: Augusta,  Ernie Els,  Nick Watney,  Paul Casey,  Phil Mickelson,  The Masters,  Tiger Woods,  Vijay Singh