It's difficult not to side with the United States side for this week's Presidents Cup - the biennial Ryder Cup-style clash between the USA and an International side - played at Harding Park Golf Course in San Francisco.
For one, they are on home soil and the closest the Internationals have come to denying them victory in the States was in 1996 when only a point separated the two teams, Arnold Palmer's men coming out on top 161/2 to 151/2. They've also won three of the past four renewals, and with plenty to spare too - won by five, three and 11 points in their last three successes. And to cap that, they have the top two ranked players in the world right now - Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson - playing for them.
No wonder they are a best-priced 4/11 with Paddy Power, with the Internationals at 11/4 (Stan James) - the tie is an 18/1 shot with bet365. Still, even at that price, you could argue they are a value bet (should be more like 1/5 in my opinion), although I'm not one for lumping on at odds-on, and prefer to play the points-scorer markets where the market leaders look under-priced.
No prizes for guessing who is favourite to top score for the Americans. The world No.1 is a prohibitive 3/1 with Ladbrokes, who clearly want him on their side, but even at Boylesport's 9/2 I'd be reluctant to part with my cash. Granted, Woods is undoubtedly at the top of his game right now having just posted his sixth win of the season and is likely to see plenty of action over the course of the three days.
However, his overall record in this event is fairly modest (for him), having won just over half the matches he's played in (13-11-1), while his four-ball mark of 3-7-0 is frankly poor. Clearly, the event doesn't bring out the best in him for some reason, and he's best swerved, along with second favourite Phil Mickelson (11-13-9), who has never been a great fan of team events, and could easily be excused for wanting to spend some more time with his family right now.
Take them on with JIM FURYK (9/1 Stan James), who has been frustrating to follow this season, I admit. It's been two years since he won on Tour but he's still managed a string of good efforts in 2009, and has looked particularly sharp in the last few weeks, posting top-10's in his last three starts to bring his seasonal tally to 10. What makes him such a good bet, though, is his Presidents Cup record of 13-8-2 and I expect team captain Fred Couples will play him as often as he can.
As for the Internationals, bookmakers are struggling to find a favourite, with Ernie Els, Geoff Ogilvy and Retief Goosen all vying for that position at around 7/1. A case can be made for all three although twist my arm and I'd go for Els, who has been in good form in the States in recent weeks.
However, the one to be on is MIKE WEIR at 10/1 (Ladbrokes). Like Furyk, he hasn't won on Tour for a while but did go close twice in early 2009 with a tie for third and solo second in his first three starts. He's managed only three top-10's since but this event always brings out the best in him and he can boast an impressive overall record of 11-7-1, including the scalp of Tiger Woods in the singles two year's ago, which will make it hard for team captain Greg Norman to leave him out.
Recommended Bets:
Jim Furyk 1pt @ 9/1 Stan James
Mike Weir 1pt @ 10/1 Ladbrokes
1pt each-way double with Ladbrokes (8/1 Furyk) at 1/4 odds, 1.2.3.