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Tour Championship preview - Using the statistics to find the FedEx Cup winner

CARMEL, IN - SEPTEMBER 09: Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland catches a golf ball on the driving range during the final round of the BMW Championship at Crooked Stick Golf Club on September 9, 2012 in Carmel, Indiana. (Photo by Warren Little/Getty Images)
The Tour Championship this weekend will decide the FedEx Cup winner and the key stats can help us to find the golfer who will be claiming the massive prize on offer in Georgia.

And so we arrive at the FedEx Cup decider, The Tour Championship, staged at the beautiful East Lake Golf Club in Georgia, a course that usually affords loads of birdies and drama.

Here I've looked at three key form lines - recent form, course form, and form in the big tournaments - to hopefully aid your punting this week. How you interpret these stats is entirely your decision, but fingers crossed you all have a terrific week on the Betfair Exchange.

Recent Form - The Hottest Players on the Planet

(Tournaments used: Last six events on the PGA Tour)

Rory McIlroy (4) ... 42.5
Louis Oosthuizen (3) ... 23.5
Dustin Johnson (3) ... 21.5
Sergio Garcia (2) ... 20.5
Tiger Woods (3) ... 19.5
Keegan Bradley (2) ... 19.5
Phil Mickelson (2) ... 17
Brandt Snedeker (2) ... 16
Lee Westwood (2) ... 15
*number in brackets after a player's name is the number of top-10 finishes achieved in last six weeks/tournaments on tour

When you're talking about 'hot' players then Rory McIlroy sticks out like a sore thumb thanks to three wins from his last four events on the PGA Tour, including another Major championship, and a fifth place finish at the WGC Bridgestone invitational.

Not surprisingly then McIlroy is the clear favourite to win this week - available to back at 5.85/1 - but if there is one niggling doubt in my mind then it's the fact that he has never participated in this end-of-season Tour Championship before, and with a huge pot of gold on offer, as well as the FedEx cup trophy, it will be fascinating to see how he performs around East Lake.

There are no shortage of alternatives if you're looking for players who have shown excellent recent form. Lee Westwood (20.019/1) seems to have come to life in these play-offs, Dustin Johnson (19.018/1) and Louis Oosthuizen (29.028/1) have been in terrific form, and Keegan Bradley (46.045/1) looks back to the player he was this time last year.

And then of course there's the ultra-competitive Tiger Woods (6.86/1), a true champion in Phil Mickelson (14.013/1), and the loveable Sergio Garcia (28.027/1). These three do have form around East Lake. Wow, we're in for some tournament this week!

Course Form - East Lake Lovers

(Tournaments Used: Last five renewals of the Tour Championship at East Lake - 2007-2011)

Phil Mickelson ... 22.5 (10th 2011, Won 09, 3rd 08)
Tiger Woods ... 22 (2nd 09, Won 07)
Jim Furyk ... 21.5 (Won 2010, 7th 09, 6th 08)
Luke Donald ... 18 (3rd 2011, 2nd 2010)
Sergio Garcia ... 17 (2nd 08, 4th 07)

Interestingly, only Jim Furyk (32.031/1) and Luke Donald (21.020/1) have brilliant form at East Lake since the FedEx Cup was re-vamped a few years ago, but notice how these two don't appear in the Recent Form list.

Both Mickelson (2009) and Woods (2007) have winning form here in the last five years, and the fact that they have been in good form recently entitles them to go well again. Both look a tad short in the betting for my liking however.

At the odds my preference is for Donald.

Last year's dual money-list winner should be far more relaxed this week knowing he stands little chance of winning the FedEx Cup outright, and the fact that he's performed well here in each of the last two years, and raises his game for these big events (see below), then it's difficult to see him not being in contention.

The Major Performers - Up For the Event

(Tournaments Used: 2012 Majors, The Players Championship & WGC strokeplay events)

Justin Rose (4)... 29
Matt Kuchar (5) ... 28
Rory McIlroy (3) ... 27.5
Keegan Bradley (3) ... 22.5
Bubba Watson (2)... 22
Luke Donald (4) ... 21
*number in brackets after a player's name is the number of top-10 finishes achieved in this year's big tournaments

Where have they gone? Surely Woods and Mickelson will be on this list. Unfortunately not.

When it comes to this year's Majors, World Golf Championship events, and other biggies such as the Players Championship then the world's best two golfers over the last 15 years have been pretty disappointing by their very own standards.

Apart from a third place apiece (Mickelson at the Masters, Woods at the Open) they've done very little. Contrast that to the likes of Donald, Justin Rose (42.041/1) and Matt Kuchar (70.069/1), who have consistenly raised their game when a big tournament has come around.

Kuchar has been particularly impressive. As well as winning the hugely competitive Players Championship, the man with the big smile has recorded top-eight finishes in all three of this year's WGC events, finished third at the Masters way back in April, and recorded an excellent top-10 finish at the Open Championship.

On this form alone, Kuchar has to be worth a bet at 70.069/1 to win this week. Hopefully he'll trade a lot lower enabling us to bank some profit.

Incidentally, Woods is 15th on this list, Mickelson is way down in 29th, and England's Lee Westwood is languishing down in 22nd.

Enjoy the week.

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Tour Championship preview - Using the statistics to find the FedEx Cup winner

The Tour Championship this weekend will decide the FedEx Cup winner and the key stats can help us to find the golfer who will be claiming the massive prize on offer in Georgia.

Read more »

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