No European has won the US Open since Tony Jacklin in 1970, but there are plenty of reasons for thinking that disappointing stat is about to be broken at Pebble Beach this week.
The state of European golf has never been stronger with seven of the top 14 players in the World Golf Rankings being European, as are 18 of the top-50, and many of them are accustomed to US conditions and courses due to competing on the PGA Tour on a regular basis. And they've been enjoying plenty of success too, with Lee Westwood claiming his first PGA Tour title since 1998 on Sunday, and Justin Rose landing his maiden title on US soil the previous week in Ohio, to name but two success stories.
What's more, Pebble Beach is about as Euro-friendly as you can get due to the windy, links-style conditions; the sort of conditions that give most US players a torrid time when they come over to compete in our Open. It's no coincidence then that Europeans filled four of the top-seven places when the US Open was last held here in 2000, while this was also the scene of one of Colin Montgomerie's major near misses in 1992.
Even more encouragement can be gleaned from the form of the Americans' two best players: Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson. Since finishing fourth in the Masters - a tremendous achievement considering his off course problems - the world No.1 has been struggling to be competitive and no one reasonably expects him to be in peak form this week.
Mickelson has been in much better form, admittedly - his recent fifth place at Memorial adding to his Masters win and second place at Quail Hollow. You can't fault his Pebble Beach record either as he's won three times here, while his US Open record is as good as anyone yet to win that major, having finished runner-up five times. However, this week's set-up will place a heavy premium on accuracy and that has never been Phil's strongest point.
So, who is our best chance of victory this week? Westwood is clearly in great form and has some Pebble Beach form to his name, having finished tied-fifth here in 2000, albeit a massive 15 shots behind Tiger. A prolific winner around the world, he is proving himself to be a model of consistency in big events, finishing no worse than third in the last three majors, and his combination of straight, powerful hitting off the tee and laser-like iron play, are tailor-made for the US Open, which he went close to winning two years ago At 12/1 with Totesport (who offer a generous six places), he represents a solid each-way pick and a decent trade at 13.5 on Betfair.
Padraig Harrington (27/1 Blue Square) was also in the thick of the action in 2000 (at least for second place) and 10 years on has truly established himself as a world class player. He could be in better form, though, and Rory McIlroy could be the better bet at 28/1 (Stan James) as he loves links golf and made a pleasing US Open debut 12 months ago. He's since won his first PGA Tour title when blowing away a high class field at Quail Hollow as recently as May and is surely destined to be world No.1.
Luke Donald's accurate driving should make him a contender every time he tees up in this major, so his five-year record of MC/WD/MC/12/57 is disappointing. Nevertheless, his lack of length off the tee is not so much of a problem this week and at 40/1 (Ladbrokes), he might not be a bad each-way bet, although I'd still question his bottle at the business end.
Both Paul Casey and Ian Poulter - 45/1 and 70/1 with Stan James respectively - have been struggling a little of late but I can see the old adage 'form is temporary, class is permanent' being wheeled out by Sky commentators this week. If Ross Fisher was in better form, he'd be a monster bet at 135/1 (Stan James), as there are very few better players of windy conditions and he went close to winning at Bethpage Black a year ago.
Graeme McDowell is another who has proved himself in these conditions and having won the Wales Open last time out, arrives here at the top of his game. At 80/1 with Betfred - who also go a generous 1/4 odds six places - he's worth considering.
However, if I had to have one bet, it would be on Westwood, who will never have a better chance of winning a major at his 50th attempt and must surely go close to ending the European drought in this event.
Recommended Bet:
Lee Westwood 3pts each-way @ 12/1 Totesport (1/4 odds, six places)