The US Open returns to Pebble Beach Golf Links this year for the fifth time in its history and the first since Tiger Woods won by an incredible 15 shots in 2000.
A decade later and how the mighty have fallen. Looking very un-Tiger-like of late, the World No.1 is not even clear favourite with some firms, with Phil Mickelson, five times a runner-up in this event, vying for that honour. Like Woods, Lefty knows his way around here having won the Pebble Beach Pro-am three times and he's certainly been in much better form of late, with a last time out fifth at Memorial adding to his win at the Masters and second place at Quail Hollow. I know who I'd rather back.
The layout has also seen some changes 2000. For one, it will play 190 yards longer, while some fairways have been narrowed and moved closer to the ocean, putting a greater emphasis on accuracy. The greens, which aren't expected to be as fast as usual US Open venues, are the smallest on the major roster, so greens in regulation and scrambling stats should be punters first point of call.
The weather, so often a factor at Pebble Beach, is set fair with no rain and moderate winds at worst. It all makes for compelling viewing and, fortunately, there are at least 22 hours of live golf scheduled on Sky. So, get your bets on (by 1.30pm UK time), sit back and enjoy!
Ross' Three Off The Tee:-
Lee Westwood @ 12/1 Totesport (1/4 odds, six places)
It is 40 years since a European won this major - but don't let that put you off backing the Worksop man. Straight and long all day, this major sets up for him perfectly and he came close to winning it two years ago. Since then, he's continued to bank a solid run of form in the big events, finishing no worse than third in the last three majors, and last week's St Jude Classic victory, his first win on the PGA Tour since 1998, will have done wonders for his confidence.
OK, it's a slight negative that he was in the heat (literally) of battle on Sunday, but he'd already put in a couple of practice rounds around here the week before Memphis and can afford a couple of days rest before Thursday. I'm not worried by the fact he's been drawn with Tiger either as the two have been drawn together many times before, including over the first two rounds at last year's Open, in which he finished runner-up.
Yes, I would have liked a few points longer but I still think he's knocking good each-way bet (especially with six places) at 12/1 and a decent trade at 14 on Betfair.
Dustin Johnson @ 40/1 Boylesports (1/4 odds, six places)
I'm feeling confident about Westwood but have been betting on golf long enough to know you should never put all your eggs in one basket, so into the staking plan go a couple of young Americans. Johnson has long been a favourite of mine after winning me a few quid at the Turning Stone Championship in 2008 and this could be the week he moves up to the next level on a course he clearly loves. Three times he's teed it up at Pebble, finishing seventh on his debut and then winning the last two years, and while this week's track will be set up a lot harder than the amateur-friendly one he's used to playing, his knowledge and history of success will count for plenty. Since winning here in February, his form has been in and out admittedly, but he's now working with Butch Harmon and seventh place at Colonial on his latest start suggests their partnership could be about to bear fruit at a tasty 40/1.
Nick Watney @ 70/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds, six places)
Butch Harmon is also playing a central role in the career of the Californian, whose Pebble record is far from shabby either with seventh place in 2006 and only one missed cut to show from seven visits. Clearly, he enjoys playing in his home state as he's a winner at nearby Torrey Pines, also played on Poa Annoa greens. While he's winless in 2010, his three top-10's include fourth at the Masters, so his form can hardly be described as disappointing, while his stats - he leads the Tour in greens hit and ranks fifth in GIR from lies off the fairway - make for encouraging reading too. Snap up the 70/1 while it lasts.
Bubbling Under: Tim Clark (66/1 Skybet)
His arrow-straight driving and laser-like irons make the South African a leading contender this week and having got a massive monkey off his back by winning the Players, his first PGA Tour victory, he's unlikely to bottle it if in contention.
Punters Beware: Tiger Woods
The world No.1 can barely hit a fairway at the moment, ranking last for driving accuracy amongst all cut-makers on his last start at Memorial. Around this layout, which is going to place a heavy premium on accuracy, that could prove fatal to his chances. He might not even place, never mind win.
bet365, Totesport, Betfred, Boylesports, Paddy Power and Stan James are all offering place terms of 1/4 odds, six places so don't bet with anyone else if you can help it.
Recommended Bets:-
Lee Westwood 3pts each-way @ 12/1 Totesport
Dustin Johnson 1.5pts each-way @ 40/1 Boylesports
Nick Watney 1pt each-way @ 70/1 Paddy Power
(All the above are 1/4 odds, six places)
