US Open: Stricker Striking Value at 33/1

The second Major of the year is upon us with the world's golfing elite teeing up at Bethpage Black, which at 7,445 yards is the longest in US Open history.

The Course: Bethpage Black, Farmingdale, NY (par-70, 7,445 yards)
The sign on the first tee reads: "Warning. The Black Course is an extremely difficult course which we recommend only for highly skilled golfers." That's more intended for the weekend hackers on this public course, but the 'Black' has a deserved reputation for bringing players to their knees. When the US Open was last staged here in 2002, scores in the low eighties were common and only one player - you guessed it, Tiger Woods -  finished under par.

This year, while the rough has been graduated, meaning only wildly errant tee shots will find the deep stuff, accuracy off the tee is still going to be important, while a strong short game will help too. There are only two par-5's, the 4th and 13th, which is a monster at 605 yards.

The Tiger Factor:
Up until the Memorial Tournament, the US Open was looking the most open for years with doubts about the big two, Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson, and very little separating the next 30 or so players. However, for the first time since returning from injury, Tiger's 'A Game' was back for all to see at Muirfield Village and his flawless 65 on Sunday, during which he hit 14 out of 14 fairways, would have sent a shudder down his rival's spines. If he plays like that this week, he's going to be nigh on unbeatable, but the question punters have to ask themselves is: is he value at the industry high of 15/8 (Sportingbet)?

Well, statistically speaking he should be a 3/1 shot having won three US Opens from 12 starts as a professional, while I doubt this year's set up is going to favour him as much as it did in 2002, when persistent heavy rain meant it was a struggle for even the average hitters to reach the greens in regulation. So, while an in-play bet remains an option, I'm excluding him from my pre-tournament betting porfolio, although I wouldn't put anyone off backing my selections in the 'Without Tiger' market.

Ross' Top Tip: Steve Stricker @ 33/1 bet365
While Tiger is the most likely winner, Stricker represents great value at 33/1. Here is a massively in-form player - six top-10 finishes in 13 starts including a win at Colonial last month - who has been a familiar name on US Opens leaderboards - sixth in 2006, fifth in 1998 and 1999 and, most significantly, a respectable 16th at Bethpage in 2002. He was also sixth in the Masters in April, so this could be the week the five-times Tour winner steps up to Major champion.

Next Best: Paul Casey @ 25/1 Stan James (1/4 odds, SIX places)
The Englishman is up to No.3 in the world rankings after a stellar season, which has included a breakthrough first win on the US Tour in the Houston Open and victory in the European Tour's flagship event, the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth. Let's not forget, he was also runner-up to Geoff Ogilvy in the WGC Accenture Match Play so a Major win wouldn't look out of place on his CV, and Bethpage will suit his game perfectly. Stan James are tops at 25/1 and their six pay-out places are the icing on the cake.

Outsider: Ben Curtis @ 110/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds, SIX places)
The former Open champ has no worthwhile form in this Major, but his record in the other three, and in other prestigious events on tough courses, means he's no forlorn hope this week. Two of his best performances last year came in Majors; seventh and second in the Open and PGA respectively, while he also played well on championship courses like Quail Hollow and Westchester, so get stuck into Paddy Power's 110/1 - again at six pay-out places.

Ross' 72-Hole Match Bet: Ben Curtis to beat Justin Leonard @ 10/11 Ladbrokes

Tournament Lay: Justin Leonard
The Texan has the game for US Opens, but the form book shows he hasn't made a single top-10 in 13 attempts at this Major, which makes him a player to oppose across a variety of markets.

Recommended Bets:
Steve Stricker 2pts each-way @ 33/1 bet365
Paul Casey 2pts each-way @ 25/1 Stan James (1/4 odds, SIX places)
Ben Curtis 1pt-each-way @ 110/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds, SIX places)

 

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Tags: Ben Curtis,  Bethpage Black,  Golf Betting,  Justin Leonard,  Paul Casey,  Phil Mickelson,  Steve Stricker,  Tiger Woods,  US Open