Narrow fairways, penal rough, lightning-fast greens - it can only be the US Open, the most fearsome major of all. And it’s no surprise that Tiger Woods is favourite, although he’s easy to back on account of concerns over his knee injury.
The Course: Torrey Pines South Course, La Jolla, San Diego, CA (par-71, 7,643 yards)
Set above 100m-high cliffs next to the Pacific, the course is one of the most spectacular in golf, and also one of the hardest on Tour. Much can turn on events at the 573-yard 18th, a risk / reward par-5 with a long approach to a green protected by water. In reality, few take it on in two, but even getting down in two from the ‘safe’ right-hand side of the green is tough. The other par-5’s are the 6th, 9th and 13th. The bentgrass greens are smaller than average. For this week, players can expect greens running at a super slick 4m on the Stimpmeter, fairways between just 20m and 30m wide and three bands of tangly kikuyu grass rough, the deepest of which will be cut at 18cm.
Ross’ Top Tip: Phil Mickelson @ 8/1 Ladbrokes
With doubts surrounding the fitness of Tiger, this looks a golden chance for Mickelson to land that elusive US Open; the one event he’d desperately love to add to his CV. Four previous runner-up finishes, the most recent being at Winged Foot two years ago, when he led down the last, shows he has the game to win a US Open, and he arrives here in peak form having won Colonial two weeks ago. Throw in his excellent course form - won the Buick Invitational three times, and had another six top eight finishes - and he looks a rock solid each way bet at 8/1.
Next Best: Tim Clark @ 80/1 totesport / Mike Weir @ 55/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds, six places)
I couldn’t decide between Clark or Weir, so I’m adding both to the staking plan. Neither drive the ball very far, but make up for that with their accuarcy off the tee, so they‘ll be scoring par while others are running up sizes and sevens. Both have a superb US Open pedigree. Clark was third at Pinehurst in 2005 and has registered two other top-20’s in the last four years. His Torrey Pines record (two top-12’s in just four attempts) is the icing on the cake. Weir is already a major champion having won the 2003 Masters and his five-year-form figures in the second major of the year read: 3rd, 4th, 42nd, 6th and 20th (most recent).
Crucially, both appear to have every department of their game in good order. Weir finished tied-3rd at Muirfield Village on his most recent start, while Clark finished second to Mickelson at Colonial and led by four shots going into the final round of last week's St Jude Classic. The 80’s on Clark is standout with totesport, while Paddy Power’s 55/1 on Weir is excellent value as they’re paying out down to six places!
Outsider: Ryuji Imada @ 80/1 Boylesports (1/4 odds, six places)
The last three US Open winners have been retuned at 80/1 or bigger, and all three were ‘Rest Of The World’ players, so a win for Imada, who hails from Japan, would hardly be bucking a trend. More importantly, he’s having his best season on Tour, has made the top-15 in an US Open twice from just three starts, and has twice finished runner-up at Torrey Pines. Put it like this, I would much rather back him at 80/1with Boylesports, who are paying out on six places, than the waning Els, Goosen and Singh at less than half his price.
Ross’ Match Bet: Ryuji Imada to beat Camilo Villegas @ Evens sportingbet
Tournament Lay (Betfair): Tiger Woods
Risky I know, but his knee is clearly still a concern and this is not a tournament to come into less than 100 per cent fit. He might still win, but I can’t see him running away with it like he did at Pebble Beach in 2000, and he’s almost certainly going to be a bigger price in-running. Lay to back.
Recommended Bets:
Phil Mickelson 3pts each way @ 8/1 Ladbrokes
Mike Weir 1pt each way @ 55/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds, six places)
Tim Clark 1pt each way @ 80/1 totesport
Ryuji Imada 1pt each way @ 80/1 Boylesports (1/4 odds, six places)