Bookmakers are struggling to find a favourite in this market, which is not surprising as there are so many Europeans playing well right now. For example, just look at the recent Open and Bridgestone Invitational, where Europeans crammed the top-10 places. Lee Westwood is probably the form horse after finishing second last week, just one of a string of high class efforts on both sides of the Pond this season. However, that is reflected in his price of 13/2 (BetDirect), so I’d prefer to look elsewhere for a value.
The same can be said of Sergio Garcia (13/2 Stan James) and Padraig Harrington (6/1 Blue Square), although a ‘win’ for either would hardly come as a surprise. Of the two, I’d take Garcia as he’s threatened to this tournament on more than one occasion and is one of the surest long drivers of the ball in the world. In comparison, Harington has struggled in the final major and, besides, it would be some feat if he can pull off back-to-back majors.
My idea of the winner of this market is Paul Casey at 14/1 (Boylesports). Ok, his major performances haven’t been as impressive as the likes of Westwood and Harrington, but 11th at Augusta and seventh in the Open suggest he’s not exactly a bottler when it comes to the big occasion. His last day 65 at Firestone was particularly eye-catching and he was in bullish mood after: “My game is in good shape – I think I’ve got it clicking now.” That’ll do for me.
In such a competitive market, you could make a case for several others, including Henrik Stenson (14/1 totesport) – 14th in this tournament two years ago and a decent 16th last week – and Miguel Angel Jimenez (18/1 Skybet), 10th on Sunday and top-10 in both US majors this year. But my idea of a saver has to be Robert Karlsson at 18/1 with VCbet. He doesn’t win very often (may not have to do that to finish top European), but you can’t argue with his record in this year’s three majors – eighth at Augusta, fourth at Torrey Pines, seventh at the Open.
I see some firms are also betting on Top Continental European, which might be the best place to back Karlsson (7/1 best with Paddy Power) as you don’t have to worry about the likes of Harrington, Westwood and Casey.
Recommended Bets:
Paul Casey (Top European) 1pt each way @ 14/1 Boylesports
Robert Karlsson (Top Continental European) 1pt @ 7/1 Paddy Power