Tiger has been all rage this week's USPGA at Hazeltine but before you go rushing in to back him at the general 7/4, here are three factors to consider:
1. The Host Course - Hazeltine
No course is Tiger-proof but if we look back to the result of the last USPGA held here in 2002, the leaderboard is dominated by short-hitting accurate types who repeatedly managed to keep out of the hazards. The one exception being the runner-up - Tiger Woods of course - but it just goes to show the importance of accurate driving around here and that's not always Tiger's forte. And for this year's event, the course has been lengthened to bring the fairway bunkers more into play.
2. He's only just getting the job done.
Five wins in 12 starts (including his last two) since returning from injury in February is an impressive strike rate by any means, but some of these have come in very un-Tiger-like fashion. Apart from his win at Congressional - which was vintage Tiger - he has either made a stuttering start or thrown in a lack-lustre round, meaning he's had to dig deep at some stage, and it's arguable whether he would have won last week had Padraig Harrington not pressed the self destruct button at the 70th hole.
3. He'll probably be a bigger price in-running.
That assumption is based on his record over the past yearas, with one or two exceptions, he's traded at a bigger price in-running than his pre-tournament price. This season in particular, apart from the aforementioned A T & T National, punters waiting to back him in-running (or laying him pre-tournament on Betfair with a view to closing out in-running) would have been quids in. At Warwick Hills, he drifted out to 4/1 after a lack-lustre 71 in the opening round, while last week at Firestone he was available at 7/2 (7/4 pre-tournament) when five shots back with two rounds to play.
As for the reasons to back him, I hardly need remind you he's just won back-to-back tournaments at Warwick Hills and Firestone and is chasing his fifth USPGA title, to tie with Jack Nicklaus and Walter Hagen. What's more, after going 0-3 in Majors this year, and despite winning five times this season, he'll still view 2009 as a failure if he fails to bag the final Major of the year. That hunger to win - which is sadly missing in some of his rivals - make him very much the man to beat this week. In fact, Coral go just 9/1 that he leads after every round and wins the tournament.
Coral Tiger Specials:
100/1 to make a hole-in-one
11/2 to be leader on his own after round one
9/1 to lead after every round and win the tournament
10/1 to lead after three rounds and lose the tournament
Coral also go 7/4 that he wins the USPGA outright