I just can't see him being out of the frame this week and with Stan James offering six places 'without' the great man, he's irresistible each-way.
The market for this week's final major of the year, the USPGA Championship, looks very one-sided after Tiger Woods' 70th PGA Tour win on Sunday, with quotes of 7/4 the best on offer.
The Course: Hazeltine National Golf Club, Chaska, Minnesota (par-72, 7,674 yards)
A number of holes have been lengthened since Tiger finished runner-up to Rich Beem the last time the USPGA was held here in 2002, making the course the longest used in major history. The main aim of the changes was to bring the fairway bunkers back into play, while water comes into play on eight holes. The greens are huge so, while you can expect a high percentage of greens hit in regulation, the field will be faced with more of those clutch five to ten feet putts. There are four par-5's - the 3rd, 7th, 11th and the monster 15th at 642 yards.
The Tiger Factor
Well done if you followed last week's advice and backed Tiger for the Firestone / Hazeltine 'double' at 6/1 with Stan James, who must now be hoping the world No.1 has peaked too early. With no better than 7/4 on offer this week, that's looking very tasty indeed and I'm not in the least bit tempted to lay him off now to ensure a profit or even to cover my stake, such is my confidence in his chances.
If you're not on at enhanced odds, don't despair - 7/4 (Betfred, Blue Square, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power) is a perfectly fair price, although you'll have to have a chunky bet on to make a decent profit. Of course, you could always wait and hope he's a bigger price in-running - 7/2 was available going into the weekend at Bridgestone when he was five back - but I'd rather take him out of the equation altogether and, fortunately, the 'without Tiger' market provide us with plenty to get stuck into.
Ross' Top Tip: Hunter Mahan 'without Tiger' @ 25/1 Stan James (1/4 odds, six places)
Tiger aside, the Californian is playing the best golf on the planet right now - 6th, 4th, 2nd and 4th in his last four US starts. That alone makes him worthy of consideration but, ideally for this week's challenge, he's particularly well-suited to long championship courses - tenth in the Masters and sixth in the US Open this season - and is an excellent clutch putter. I just can't see him being out of the frame this week and with Stan James offering six places 'without' the great man, he's irresistible each-way.
Next Best: Steve Stricker 'without Tiger' @ 25/1 bet365
I'm expecting the cream to rise to the top this week and Stricker certainly has a touch of class about him. It's 11 years since he last came close to winning a major - edged out by Vijay Singh in the 1998 USPGA at Sahalee - but he's having his best ever season with two titles and umpteen top-10's, including sixth at Firestone, a course not dissimilar to Hazeltine. A long accurate driver of the ball with a short game to die for (ranked 1st in scrambling), he's a must for the staking plan.
Outsider: Michael Sim 'without Tiger' @ 175/1 Stan James (1/4 odds, six places)
Mike Weir (60/1 bet365) and Camilo Villegas (50/1 Ladbrokes) are two 'outsiders' who could go well this week, but no-one beats Sim for a genuine long-shot. The Sottish-born Aussie first came to my attention back in April when winning his second title on the Nationwide Tour - now ranks 1st in Total Driving (accuracy and distance combined) and Putting Average at that level. That qualified him for the US Open and he played a blinder finishing 18th after being paired with Tiger in the final round, so we know he can handle the pressure of a major. OK, a top seven finish might be just beyond him at this early stage of his career but at the odds it's worth paying to find out.
If that doesn't float your boat, then Paddy Power's quote of 18/1 for him to be Top Australasian certainly should.
Tournament Lay: Padraig Harrington for a place on Betfair (pre-tournament and again if in contention after two rounds)
Harrington's vastly improved performance at Firestone - after six missed cuts in the row - had bookmaker's running for cover, but I wouldn't be in a rush to back him this week. The Dubliner admitted to feeling drained after his last round dual with Tiger, hardly an ideal preparation for a Major, and to make matters worse, he's been paired with the great man for the first two rounds at Hazeltine. Even if he holds it together for 36 holes, the strain is bound to show at the weekend.
Ross' 72-Hole Match Bet: Mike Weir to beat Tim Clark @ 5/6 Boylesports
Recommended Bets:
Hunter Mahan 'without Tiger' 2pts each-way @ 25/1 Stan James (1/4 odds, six places)
Steve Stricker 'without Tiger' 2pts each-way @ 25/1 bet365 (1/4 odds, five places)
Michael Sim 'without Tiger' 1/2pt each-way @ 175/1 Stan James (1/4 odds, six places)
Michael Sim Top Australasian 1pt each-way @ 18/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds, three places)