The European Tour reaches its climax this week at Valderrama in Spain with the top-60 players in the Order of Merit rankings battling it out for the Volvo Masters title, while four players are still in with a chance of being crowned this continent's best golfer of 2008.
The Course: Club de Golf Valderrama, Sotogrande, Spain (par-71, 6,988 yards)
A really tough, tree-lined course, designed by Robert Trent Jones. It demands accuracy, rather than power off the tee, and sound positional play from the undulating fairways. The large Bentgrass greens are undulating and quick. The par-5’s are the easy 4th, 11th, and the signature 17th - a real risk-reward hole where the second shot can spin back into the water or go through into a bunker at the back. The final par-4 hole is particularly tough demanding real accuracy off the tee and par is a good score.
Ross Top Tip: Padraig Harrington @ 11/1 bet365, William Hill
I never thought I'd be tipping up the Irishman again this season after his post USPGA dip in form, culminating in a poor performance in the Ryder Cup. However, 13th place in the Dunhill Links followed by a play-off defeat in the Grand Slam of Golf suggests he's not far off the sort of form that won him the last two majors. And he has every incentive to continue playing well this week as the winner's cheque of €708,000 would also give him the Order of Merit crown, providing the current leader Robert Karlsson finishes no better than third. While Karlsson's record here is nothing to get excited about, Harrington has won the Volvo Masters before (albeit on a different course), and has form figures of 10-2-4 at the current venue.
Karlsson, who is €297,425 ahead of Harrington, is no bigger than 1/7 (Boylesports) to take the OOM crown, while Harrington is 6/1 (totesport). Lee Westwood and Miguel Angel Jimenez, the only other two golfers who can pass Karlsson, are 16/1 (VCbet) and 66/1 (Stan James) respectively.
Next Best: Sergio Garcia @ 11/2 Paddy Power, BetDirect
Sergio was an obvious pick last week and he duly obliged at 6/1 - hope you were on! This week, there's no reason to desert him on a course where he's excelled in the past, without quite getting his head in front. The Spaniard was runner-up for three consecutive years between 2004 and 2006 and last year's 34th place was the first time in eight starts in the event that he has ended up outside the top 13. Still, he broke a run of seconds when winning last week and, with his formerly suspect putting now a thing of the past, he might do likewise this week. Even if he's not your main bet this week, he's worth a saver at least.
Outsider: Soren Kjeldsen @ 45/1 Blue Square / Place Only @ 9/1 bet365
A win for Kjeldsen would not come out of turn as the Dane doesn't win as often as he should considering his talent. However, he did all but win here last year when finishing runner-up to Justin Rose after losing out in a three man play-off, and he arrives here in great form having finished fourth in last week's Castello Masters. If you can't bear to back him each way (win and place), then consider a place only punt at 9/1 to finish in the top five.
Tournament Lays (Betfair): Henrik Stenson and Paul Casey
The Swede looked to have had enough for the season at last week's Castello Masters, while Casey's game is not suited to the tight layout at Valderrama. Lay them both for a place and take them on in match and group bets.
Ross' Match Bet: Padraig Harrington to beat Robert Karlsson @ 10/11 Betfred
Recommended Bets:
Padraig Harrington 2pts each way @ 11/1 bet365, William Hill
Sergio Garcia 2pts @ 11/2 Paddy Power, BetDirect
Soren Kjeldsen 1pt each way @ 45/1 Blue Square / Place Only 1pt @ 9/1 bet365