Another tournament, another win for Tiger? The bookmakers certainly think so as, this week, he’s odds-on across the board to win again at the Doral resort in Miami.
The Course: Doral Resort (Blue Course), Miami, FLA (par-72, 7,266 yards)
The course is known as the ‘Blue Monster’, not so much due to its length but the fact that water is in play on 12 holes, including the par-4 18th, which is one of the most difficult closing holes on Tour. The rest of the course, however, is fairly benign by modern standards with not much in the way of defences against the modern pros. The tifdwarf greens are above average in size and typically grainy. There are four par-5’s - the 1st, 8th, 10th and 12th. At 603 yards, the latter is one of the Tour’s longest par-5’s, so don't expect many players to reach the green in two.
Ross’ Top Tip - Tiger Woods @ 5/6 Paddy Power, bet365
No prizes for originality, but it simply has to be Woods. He’s now won five straight on the US Tour in six months of brilliance dating back to last year’s BMW Championship. His average score in that time is 66.13 and he is a combined 74 under par. If that wasn’t enough, he has a superb record on the course, having won the last three events staged at Doral and, given he’s won 15 events under the WGC banner, it’s fair to say that he gets motivated for them. All that considered, quotes of 5/6 are more than fair - 1/2 is the right price - so have a decent win bet on him and use the profits to fund some ‘free’ bets elsewhere.
Next Best - Aaron Baddeley @ 40/1 Skybet
The confident Aussie is one player who won’t be scared of going head-to-head with Tiger having pushed him to extra holes in the Accenture World Matchplay on his last competitive outing. Sixth in this last year, he rates a cracking each way bet in the ‘Without Woods’ market.
Outsider - Niclas Fasth @ 50/1 VCbet
The Swede also ran sixth at Doral last year, and shot an eye-catching 66 in the last round of the Bay Hill Invitational on Sunday to finish in a share of eighth place behind Woods. The 50/1 ‘Without Woods’ makes plenty of appeal and he’s worth playing in the ‘Top European’ market too.
Tournament Lay - Adam Scott
The world No.5 has not made much of an impression so far in Miami with a tie for 61st last year and a previous missed cut.
Ross’ 72-Hole Match Bet - Henrik Stenson (seems to raise his game for the WGC events) to beat Adam Scott @ 10/11 bet365
In-running notes:
If betting in-running, note that the front nine is around a shot easier than the back nine, while the difficult 18th is a potential round wrecker. More often than not, the leader after the third round goes on to win. In the forty six events played at Doral, twenty four round leaders have landed the title.
Recommended Bets:
Tiger Woods 6pt @ 5/6 Paddy Power, bet365
Aaron Baddeley (Without Woods) 1pt each way @ 40/1 Skybet
Niclas Fasth (Without Woods) 1pt each way @ 50/1 VCbet
Niclas Fasth (Top European) 1pt @ 12/1 Boylesports