After twice finishing runner-up, Tiger Woods is bidding to make it third time lucky in this week's HSBC Champions tournament in Shanghai.
The Course: Sheshan International GC, Shanghai, China (par-72, 7,199 yards)
A tree-lined course with average width fairways and water in play on 11 holes. The 16th and 17th holes are played over a water-filled quarry, which will be very much in play on the 16th for those players opting to go for the green on this short par 4. There are four par-5's - the 2nd, 8th (the longest at 603 yards), 14th and 18th. The weather is forecast to be mainly warm and dry with moderate to light winds.
Ross' Top Tip: Phil Mickelson @ 13/1 Paddy Power
Tiger is of course the most likely winner this week but he comes into this after a long layoff and has been beaten on both his previous starts on Chinese fairways which, at the prices, makes Mickelson the better value. It's been a rollercoaster year for the world No.2, whose personal problems have understandably played havoc with his golf at times. However, he's probably playing better now than he has done all season and his victory over Woods in the Tour Championship in late September was one of five tournaments (out of 12) that he's bettered his nemesis in 2009.
Unlike the world No.1, he already has one of these Chinese events on his CV (2007), and last year's eighth place effort wasn't bad either. Woods at 2/1 (Sportingbet) or Mickelson at 13/1? It's a no-brainer for me.
Next Best: Ian Poulter @ 35/1 bet365
How wrong can you be! I suggested the Europeans were a lay last week due to the hot and humid conditions so even more credit goes to Poulter who, after a wobble during his third round, dug deep to come from four shots behind on Sunday to win, beating a quality field in the process. Confidence is everything in golf and the Englishman, who has never been shy about coming forward, will have that in spades right now. Sometimes, you have to take what he says with a pinch of salt, but when his golf is doing the talking - currently tied 2nd in the GIR stats with 77.5% - he's impossible to leave out of calculations.
Outsider: Camilo Villegas @ 66/1 Stan James
I was a bit surprised to see the Colombian trading at 66/1 this week. Granted, his overall form in 2009 hasn't quite matched that of his stellar 2008 season but he's a class act on his day and played well in last week's World Matchplay, winning two matches and losing one to the eventual winner Ross Fisher. What's more, he's already had two sighters of this course with his best effort coming last year when a final round 67 carried him up to 20th place, which makes the 66's (50/1 in places) all the more appealing.
Ross' 72-Hole Match Bet: Phil Mickelson to beat Tiger Woods @ 5/2 bodog (tie no bet)
Tournament Lay: Tiger Woods (Betfair win market)
Off since late-September, one win in his last five starts, twice beaten in this event, a quality field to contend with - yet the world No.1 is on offer at less than 2/1 in places! OK, he's won eight of the last 13 WGC events, but he's still a 3/1 shot in my opinion. Plus, we might get the chance to back him at bigger odds in-running.
Recommended Bets:
Phil Mickelson 2pts each-way @ 13/1 Paddy Power
Ian Poulter 1pt each-way @ 35/1 bet365
Camilo Villegas 1pt each-way @ 66/1 Stan James