The Waste Management Phoenix Open (rubbish title eh!) at TPC Scottsdale is like no other event in that the crowd are the most raucous on Tour and not all golfers handle it. Previous course form therefore holds more sway and all my picks this week have that in spades.
Ross' Three Off The Tee:-
JB Holmes @ 25 Betfair
Bookmakers have made the returning Phil Mickelson favourite, with last week's winner Ian Poulter and pick (hope you were on at 28!), Martin Kaymer and Geoff Ogilvy not far behind. It's a quality field but JB beats them all hands down on recent course form having won this title twice in 2006 and 2008. He missed the cut in between and again last year but he's in such good form this time round - has rewarded each-way backers on his last two starts in the Northern Trust Open and at Pebble Beach - that anything short of a top-5 finish will be a disappointment. Bookmakers are of course wise to his chances and the early 25's has been snapped up, so he's one to back in Betfair's outright market with a view to trading out to ensure a profit on Sunday.
Kevin Na @ 35/1 Stan James
Na finished in a tie for fourth, just two shots adrift of Holmes, in 2008, but that's not the only time he's figured at this track. Joint runner-up in 2005 and third last year with 21 birdies on his card, he clearly likes the razzmatazz of this event and two top-10's already this season - ranked ninth for putting overall - also bode well for backers. The shrewdies agree with me as they've helped themselves to the 40/1 but, at 35's, there's still plenty of scope for an each-way bet.
Matt Kuchar @ 40/1 Paddy Power
Did well to beat an in-form Anthony Kim 3&2 in the first round of last week's World Matchplay but it's his strokeplay form that makes him interesting this week. Since September 2009, he hasn't finished outside the top-20 and has gone close to winning twice this season with third place at the SBS Championship and a second at the Bob Hope, which is also played in the desert. His sixth place here last year is the absolute clincher for a bet and it seems bookmakers have underestimated his chances by going a generous 40/1. I'm on - I suggest you join me!
Bubbling Under: Ryan Moore (66/1 Coral) & Ryan Palmer (100/1 bet365)
Both the Ryans were considered this week as they have played well here in the past - Palmer finished tied-2nd in 2006, while Moore was tied-6th last year - and this season's efforts are encouraging too. Palmer won the Sony, while Moore can boast two top-10's finishes (SBS and Bob Hope), although neither have done much since.
Punters Beware: Ian Poulter
The Englishman's confidence will be even higher than normal after last week but this is his first look at Scottsdale and, while it should suit his game, he can be excused a mental letdown.
Recommended Bets:
JB Holmes 3pts @ 25 Betfair
Kevin Na 1.5pts each-way @ 35/1 Stan James
Matt Kuchar 1pt each-way @ 40/1 Paddy Power